Surprise in France What happens now after the left-wing election sensation

Surprise in the French elections: the left-wing camp wins contrary to previous forecasts. What this means.

Keystone-SDA

08.07.2024, 07:47

08.07.2024, 15:29

SDA

Events in the parliamentary elections in France have come thick and fast. Surprisingly, the left-wing camp has won. The right-wing nationalists are making gains, but have no chance of forming their own government. And the prime minister announces his intention to resign. What happens next in France.

Will the left-wing alliance now come to power?

At least that is what the leaders of the Nouveau Front Populaire, the strongest force in the National Assembly, are demanding. As president, it is up to Emmanuel Macron to appoint the prime minister. It is not yet clear whether he will accept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's resignation. Nor is it clear who he will appoint to form a government in such a case.

Despite their surprise success, the left is still far from an absolute majority. This means that the other parliamentary groups could topple a left-wing government not only by a vote of no confidence. The past two years, in which the Macron camp only had a relative majority in the parliamentary chamber, have also shown how difficult it is to govern in France without an absolute majority. It is unclear whether the left would be any more successful, especially as they are likely to have far fewer seats than Macron's centrist forces before the National Assembly was dissolved a few weeks ago.

Theoretically, a coalition of left and center forces is also possible. However, there have already been clear rejections of such an alliance from the left-wing alliance.

What is the timetable for forming a government?

There are no precise guidelines. Macron could wait until after the parliamentary summer break to appoint a prime minister. However, the newly elected parliament will meet for its first session on July 18. The President of Parliament will be elected at this meeting. The following day, decisions will be made on the Vice-Presidents and the composition of committees.

What happens if no government is formed?

If none of the political camps obtains an absolute majority or is able to form a government in a coalition or with acquiescence, Macron can ask Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to remain in office with the current government for the time being, despite his announcement of his resignation.

This transitional period could last several weeks, also in view of the Olympic Games, which start in Paris on July 26, and the political summer break. Macron could then form a technical government made up of experts, senior administrators and economists. A dissolution of parliament and new elections are not possible for another year.

What are the implications for Germany and Europe?

That is not clear. The left-wing alliance has so far left the question of leadership open and has no common program. In this respect, it is not yet clear what policies it will implement when it comes to government. What is certain, however, is that the alliance is clearly pro-European, with the exception of individual sections on the left, and is also firmly committed to supporting Ukraine against the Russian war of aggression.

In the event of political deadlock in France, Berlin and Brussels would no longer be able to rely on France as a strong partner. The country would be more focused on administration than on initiating new projects.

Will Le Pen's right-wing nationalists still benefit from the election result?

Even if the Rassemblement National has not become the strongest force as predicted and could even end up behind the presidential camp, Marine Le Pen's party has made considerable gains in the National Assembly. It is more strongly represented there than ever before. As a result, the party's influence in parliamentary work is growing and it is receiving more money from party funding, which it can use to prepare for the 2027 presidential election and the next parliamentary election, which is due by then at the latest.

What about Macron?

The coming days and weeks will show whether Macron will be able to salvage any of his original claim to be France's reformer and advocate of a strong Europe. If, contrary to the prevailing expectation, he succeeds in putting together a majority capable of governing in the long term with the participation of his government camp through tactics and concessions, he may still get off lightly.

However, as it has not been possible to forge a coalition in the past two years under a much clearer balance of power, Macron's remaining term of office may consist more of managing unstable conditions and stagnation in France. He would be weakened in terms of domestic and foreign policy. Although a victory for the right-wing nationalists was prevented in the parliamentary elections, Macron has done himself and his legacy more harm than good with the new election.