Belief in success meets electoral reality Why 2026 will be a test year for Trump
Trump stages America in constant jubilation. But underneath the fireworks of patriotism and self-praise, doubt is fermenting - in November it will be decided whether the show will carry or the applause will die down.
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- Donald Trump sees himself on course for success in 2025, but the Democrats' election successes and growing dissatisfaction over prices and deportation policy are putting him under increasing pressure.
- The upcoming mid-term elections in November are seen as a key test of public opinion, especially as the Republicans only hold narrow majorities in Congress.
- At the same time, Trump's age, possible successors and even speculation about a third attempt despite the constitutional ban are coming more into focus.
Everything went according to plan for US President Donald Trump in 2025, at least if you believe the man in the White House. The US economy is booming, the citizens love him and his government is doing well, that's how Trump sees it. The mid-term elections to Congress next year at the latest will show whether his plan is working. The soon-to-be 80-year-old is reacting increasingly thin-skinned to criticism.
"Shock and awe" is Trump's recipe for power, says William Galston from the Brookings Institution think tank, who previously advised President Bill Clinton. This has largely worked since Trump took office again on January 20. "But I have the feeling that terror and fear are subsiding."
Democrats win in Virginia, New Jersey and Florida
This is indicated by a series of election victories for the Democratic Party. Not only did they triumph with their left-leaning newcomer Zohran Mamdani in the mayoral election in New York, but they also won the gubernatorial elections in the eastern states of Virginia and New Jersey. A Democrat even won the city hall of Miami in the state of Florida, where Trump's residence Mar-a-Lago is located, for the first time in almost 30 years.
According to economists, the Democrats benefited from growing frustration over rising prices and Trump's deportation policy, which has destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs. The President countered in mid-December with a speech to the nation in which he touted his successes. He claimed that the USA was facing an economic boom in the coming year "the likes of which the world has never seen".
Bread, games and mid-term elections
To appease the masses, Trump is relying on the ancient Roman strategy of "bread and circuses". In June and July, the USA will host the FIFA World Cup with Mexico and Canada. On July 4, the United States will also celebrate the 250th anniversary of its independence, with an XXL-sized celebration planned in Washington.
However, after the summer games under the starry banner, attention is likely to quickly turn back to politics: On November 3, the midterm elections for Congress will take place, the most important test of sentiment for Trump halfway through his term as the 47th US president. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the hundred seats in the Senate are up for election. The Republicans only have narrow majorities in both chambers.
Trump's most recent statements on this sound unusually humble: "When you win the presidency, you seem to lose the midterm elections," he said. This rule applies "even if you do a great job as president".
Age fatigue in front of the camera
Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles admonished the president that he must throw his full weight behind the midterm elections. "I haven't told him this clearly yet, but he will campaign like he did in 2024," said Wiles in an interview. Because Trump simply mobilizes significantly more voters than his Republican Party.
However, Trump's age is increasingly getting in the way. On June 14, the real estate mogul will be 80 years old, and he was already the oldest US president to date when he made his comeback to the White House. Anyone who reports on Trump's age-related fatigue, however, will feel his wrath, as reporters from the New York Times can attest. But the fact is: during a series of appearances in the White House, the president struggled to sleep in front of the cameras.
This is another reason why potential successors are already positioning themselves. Vice President JD Vance has made no secret of the fact that he considers himself a top candidate in the 2028 presidential election, and Trump also calls him the "most likely" successor in the Maga camp. Among others, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio is considered a possible contender.
However, Trump may also find a legal trick to run for a third time. Although the US constitution prohibits him from doing so, he would, in his own words, "love to do it". Political scientist Galston believes the scenario is conceivable: "Given his tendency to challenge everything legally, I don't think it's out of the question," says Galston.
