Suddenly he says "please" Why a new election in Tennessee will be the next acid test for Trump
The re-election in the US state of Tennessee is actually a crystal-clear matter: Donald Trump has always won by a clear margin in the 7th electoral district. What if the Republican candidate only narrowly wins today - or even loses to the Democratic opponent?
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- Because a Republican switched to the private sector, Tennessee's 7th Congressional District goes to the polls today. Republican Matt Van Epps is running against Democrat Aftyn Behn.
- The electoral district is deep red: Trump has won by double-digit margins in the last three elections - most recently with 22 percent.
- A prediction market nevertheless gives the Democrat a 15 percent chance of winning. The chance of the Republican winning by a single-digit margin is estimated at 68%.
- If the Republicans only win by a narrow margin, this would be tantamount to a "huge shift to the left" - and would therefore be a bad omen for Trump and the 2026 midterm elections.
Update December 3, 8.15 a.m.: Van Epps has defeated Behn by a margin of around 9 percent, writes the BBC today.
Donald Trump strikes a new note: "Please go out and vote tomorrow", the US President urges all "America First Patriots" in the 7th electoral district in the US state of Tennessee, where the election is being called today.
The election is due to take place because Republican MP Mark Green has switched to the private sector. Matt Van Epps wants to replace him in the House of Representatives and maintain the Republicans' narrow majority there.
"He will be a great congressman, and unlike his opponent, he values Christianity and country music," writes Trump with regard to Democrat Aftyn Behn. "She has openly admitted that she hates them both."
In theory, the 79-year-old does not have to worry that the already narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives will continue to melt away: the constituency is deep red. Donald Trump has always won it by a clear margin in the last presidential elections.
And yet Trump has reason to be nervous.
"Huge shift to the left"
CNN shows just how red this constituency is: in the 2016 presidential election, Trump won here by a margin of 17%. He also had a 15 percent lead over Joe Biden there in 2020. And in 2024, he even won the 7th electoral district by a margin of 22%.
For the Republican candidate, the race should therefore already be over - especially with Trump's support. Nevertheless, one prediction market gives Democrat Aftyn Behn a 15% chance of pulling off a surprise. That doesn't sound like much, but it is still considerable for the Republican-dominated district.
However, CNN analyst Harry Enten finds another figure more exciting: the prediction market puts the chance of Matt Van Epps winning with a single-digit percentage at 68 percent. That would be a "significantly lower margin", says Enten about this scenario: "We're talking about a huge shift to the left."
Good news for the Democrats
The fact that the Democratic candidate is even given a chance of winning is remarkable. In addition, the Democrats have done better in the new elections so far this year than Kamala Harris did in the presidential election in November 2024.
Enten has another statistic at the ready: in five out of five cases, the party that has dominated new elections since 2005 has won the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. The results are therefore good news for the Democrats with a view to the midterms next year.
The election in Tennessee is taking place against a backdrop of falling poll ratings for the President: A Gallup poll from November 28 puts Trump's approval rating at just 36 percent. 60 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with his work.
The New Yorker's lowest poll rating with this institute was 34% - on January 6, 2021, when he stormed the Capitol.
