Birth rate shock in Europe Why an expert is suddenly warning of the "extinction of white Europeans"

The British demographer Paul Morland is causing heated debate with his theory of impending population collapse. In fact, current data from Switzerland, Germany and South Korea show that the decline in birth rates is accelerating worldwide.

This sentence makes you sit up and take notice. In an interview with the NZZ newspaper on Tuesday, British demographer Paul Morland said: "If things go on like this, the entire human race will die out. We white Europeans will be among the first."

Morland is regarded as a prominent figurehead of demographic science. The researcher recently appeared at the St. Gallen Symposium, has written several books on demography and has been interviewed several times by international media. His core argument is that the world is heading towards a historic phase in which too few children will be born for decades to keep societies stable.

The figures from Europe prove his warning right, at least in part.

Switzerland is experiencing a historic slump

As the Federal Statistical Office announced in November 2025, the average number of children per woman in Switzerland fell to 1.29 in 2024. The figure has never been lower since records began in 1876.

The number of third children fell particularly sharply. According to the FSO, third births have fallen by 13.6% since 2019. The trend for first and second births is also clearly pointing downwards.

According to data from Diakonie Schweiz, the attitudes of many young people are also changing. While in 2013, six percent of 20 to 29-year-olds said they did not want children, ten years later this figure had risen to 17 percent.

Experts cite high housing costs, expensive childcare and difficulties in balancing work and family as reasons for this. According to various media reports, the Swiss Federation of Trade Unions spoke of a "social warning signal".

Germany is losing touch

The trend in Germany is even more drastic. As the Federal Statistical Office announced in April, only around 654,300 children were born there in 2025 - the lowest figure since the end of the Second World War.

At the same time, more than one million people died. The birth deficit thus reached around 352,000 people, marking an all-time high in the post-war period.

The population shrank for the first time in several years because immigration was no longer able to fully compensate for the decline.

South Korea becomes a global warning signal

Paul Morland often refers to South Korea in particular. The fertility rate there was just 0.75 children per woman in 2024.

According to South Korean authorities, the government has invested the equivalent of around 250 billion Swiss francs in programs to promote families and births since 2006. Despite this, the trend has not been reversed.

Demographic forecasts predict that the country's population could roughly halve by the end of this century.

Morland makes a drastic comparison with countries such as Japan and South Korea. He told the NZZ that it was like someone jumping out of a skyscraper and declaring halfway down: "So far, everything is fine."

The UN sees the same trend - but less dramatic

The United Nations also confirms a global decline in birth rates in its "World Population Prospects 2024". According to the latest projections, fertility is now falling in all regions of the world and income groups.

Europe and North America now have the lowest fertility rates in the world, with an average of 1.4 and 1.6 children per woman respectively. Africa remains the only region above the so-called replacement level of 2.1 children per woman - but even there the figures have been falling for decades.

However, the UN does not expect an immediate "collapse of humanity". Rather, the world population is likely to grow to around 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s and then slowly decline.

It is precisely at this point that many experts disagree with Morland's choice of words.

Between warning and exaggeration

Economist David Bloom from the International Monetary Fund also warns of the economic consequences of ageing societies. Fewer young people could slow down innovation, productivity and growth, he wrote in an IMF analysis in 2025.

However, not all scientists share Morland's apocalyptic conclusions. Many demographers see enormous socio-political challenges - but no inevitable "extinction".

What can politics change? Experience to date offers little hope. Even massive investments such as those made in South Korea have not yet led to a sustainable recovery in birth rates.

France is one of the few European examples with a comparatively stable development. Thanks to decades of family policy, the fertility rate there remains significantly higher than in many neighboring countries.

For Switzerland, Paul Morland sees short-term benefits from immigration. According to his assessment in the NZZ, however, migration cannot completely solve the problem in the long term - partly because birth rates in the countries of origin are also falling.