Power poker in the Middle East Why Iran has the Emirates in its crosshairs
The Emirates report renewed attacks, Tehran denies - and threatens Abu Dhabi. Why Iran is targeting the Gulf state and what this has to do with the changing balance of power in the Middle East.
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- Iran has frequently attacked the Emirates from the air since February 28. On May 4 and 5, the ceasefire is said to have been broken again by shelling.
- Tehran denies this - and at the same time threatens Abu Dhabi sharply.
- The background to this is the Emirates' close ties with Israel, which is said to have assisted in the firing of Iranian missiles at the beginning of the week. The war has brought the countries even closer together.
- The Emirates' ties to the West are part of a larger power poker game.
A sigh of relief in the United Arab Emirates on May 2: the authorities reopen the airspace for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war. However, the joy at the hubs in Dubai and Abu Dhabi does not last long: just two days later, take-offs and landings are restricted again.
Officially, this is due to renewed air strikes by Iran, although a ceasefire with Tehran has actually been in place since April 8. On Monday, May 4, Donald Trump reported that missiles had been fired at the Emirates.
"They were mostly shot down," he tells ABC reporter Jonathan Karl. "One got through. Not a lot of damage." In the capital Abu Dhabi, the Ministry of Defense announced that the air defense had fought 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles and 4 drones. There were three casualties, according to X.
Israel is said to have helped: as CNN reports, Benjamin Netanyahu secretly ordered his military to place a battery of the Iron Dome interceptor system in the Emirates. Because Abu Dhabi is turning away from its traditional partners in the Middle East, Jerusalem sees an "unprecedented opportunity" to further strengthen its position in the Persian Gulf.
Proximity to Israel annoys Tehran
The Emirates and Israel normalized their relations in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords and have steadily expanded their cooperation since then. They are now "on a new level - including at the leadership level", an Israeli source told CNN. The influence of the Arab countries in Abu Dhabi, on the other hand, is declining.
"The war brought an unprecedented level of closeness, driven mainly by a shared sense of destiny - both countries were attacked and the enemy is a common one," summarizes another Israeli source to CNN. This connection to Israel means that Tehran prefers to target the Emirates.
On May 4, a tanker belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was attacked by two Iranian drones, according to The National and the UK Maritime Trade Operations office, which is based in Dubai. Oil tanks are said to have been hit in the port city of Fujairah, reports Reuters.
In total, Iran has fired 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles and 2,260 drones at the Emirates since February 28, killing 13 people and injuring 227, according to the Ministry of Defense. The Foreign Ministry branded the new Iranian attacks on X on Monday as "terrorist and unprovoked".
New attacks, a denial and a threat
But on the following day, the air defense is again deployed to "intercept ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones", writes the Ministry of Defense of the Emirates on X on 5 May.
This was followed by a denial from Tehran on Tuesday evening: state radio announced that no missiles or drones had been fired at targets in the Emirates in recent days.
At the same time, a military spokesman threatened the sheikhs in Abu Dhabi, saying that the Gulf state had become a "base for the Americans and Zionists" and an "enemy of the Islamic world". If attacks against Iran were to be launched from their soil, the sheikhs would regret it.
This denial fits in with the already confused situation in the Persian Gulf, where Iran and the US continue to argue loudly about who now controls the Strait of Hormuz - while Donald Trump announced an escort for merchant ships at the beginning of the week with Operation Freedom, which he threw overboard again on May 6.
Power poker in the Middle East
The ceasefire seems fragile, the situation is chaotic and negotiations for peace are not in sight - despite Trump's assurances to the contrary. The United Arab Emirates have become Tehran's preferred target due to their links to Washington and Jerusalem.
All of this creates uncertainty, which is poison for the Gulf state that likes to sell itself as the "Switzerland of the Middle East". Air strikes do not fit in with this image: they scare off tourists and business people, who were supposed to be the sheikhdom's new mainstay after oil and gas.
At the same time, Abu Dhabi's foreign policy must be seen in the context of the larger changes that are reorganizing the balance of power in the Middle East. The withdrawal of the Emirates from Opec, which are tied to the West, while Saudi Arabia has joined forces militarily with the nuclear power Pakistan, fits in with this.
The Opec exit strengthens the foreign policy weight of the Emirates, which can now produce oil at will, while it means a defeat for Riyadh, analyzes the Guardian. The Emirates' course strengthens American influence in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi get in each other's way politically in the Horn of Africa.
Who ultimately has the best cards in the Middle East power game - in which Turkey and Egypt are also sitting at the table - will only become clear once it is clear what will become of Iran.