Why Iran's power structure is not collapsing despite US bombs

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• Despite massive attacks by Israel and the USA, the Iranian leadership remains capable of acting.
• A decentralized military strategy is strengthening the Revolutionary Guards in particular and shifting power further towards hardliners.
• The initial hopes for change have largely given way to disillusionment and doubt among the population.

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It is February 28th. Israel and the USA attack Iran. There is shock in Tehran and, for a moment, something that sounds like hope to many Iranians. After dark, horn concerts sound in the metropolis of millions. People cheer in the streets. A piece of news makes the rounds, first as a rumor, then as certainty: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led the country with a firm hand for decades, is dead.

A month later, hardly anything remains of this spontaneous euphoria. Despite heavy airstrikes and the killing of high-ranking generals and politicians, the Iranian leadership appears surprisingly stable. On state television, it almost seems as if Iran is winning the war. The power apparatus continues to function and continues the retaliatory strikes. It is acting with a new radicalism. What looked like a possible turning point has not shaken the system.

The foreign minister provided an indication of how well prepared the leadership was. "Bombings in our capital have no effect on our ability to wage war," Abbas Araghchi wrote on X the day after the war began. "The decentralized mosaic defense allows us to decide when - and how - the war will end."

Founding myth of the "sacred defense"

Behind the mosaic defense is a concept that has been developed over decades. Its origins lie in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), when Saddam Hussein bombarded Iranian cities with missiles. This traumatic experience is still part of the founding myth of the Islamic Republic and is referred to as "holy defense" by supporters of the system. America's wars in the region, in Iraq and Afghanistan, have also shaped the thinking of the Iranian military leadership.

In 2005, the Revolutionary Guards announced the concept of mosaic defense, according to an analysis by the think tank "The Soufan Center". In essence, it aims to maintain combat capability even if central commanders are killed and headquarters in Tehran are destroyed. To this end, 31 separate command units have been created in the provinces that can make independent decisions. In practice, regional units can continue to fight independently for months.

Unknown retired general moves up to powerful post

Israel has also killed pragmatists in the Iranian power structure in its attacks. Ali Larijani, Secretary General of the National Security Council, was not a moderate voice, but was well connected and present in various political camps. When a successor was named a week after his death, many observers were surprised. Insiders in Iran itself had also expected a conservative politician. Instead, a largely unknown retired general from the Revolutionary Guards was appointed to the post.

Military players are gaining weight in the war, says political scientist Tareq Sydiq from the University of Marburg. "The war is shifting the balance of power in favor of the Revolutionary Guards. This is not a new dynamic. It has already been observed over the past 15 years, including as a strategy under Khamenei." This also explains why civilian functionaries are being replaced by military leaders.

The fundamentalists, often referred to as hardliners, also benefit from this development. "With their warnings against the USA and Israel, by always saying that a direct attack is imminent, they have been proven right from their point of view and can therefore assert themselves more easily," says Sydiq. They are also strengthened by the fact that politicians who have kept these factions in check are being eliminated. According to observers, Khamenei's successor, his son Modshtaba, will continue the authoritarian course.

Hopes and fears of the Iranian protest movement

Even before the war, Israel and the USA had formulated the goal of bringing about a change of power. "This is a unique opportunity for you to overthrow the regime of the Ayatollahs and gain your freedom," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a good ten days after the start of the attacks. The aim was to create the conditions, but ultimately it was up to the people themselves. However, Netanyahu is met with mistrust by many Iranians.

In the protest movement, the war initially nurtured hopes of a change. After the brutal suppression of the protests at the beginning of January, many had hoped for the fall of the authoritarian leadership. Security forces killed thousands of people over the course of two nights on January 8 and 9. A debate broke out among millions of Iranians at home and abroad as to whether the attacks from outside could bring down the system.

Even today, there are still Iranians who approve of the war. But disillusionment and doubt prevail in the country. Mehran (34) was one of those who initially believed in a quick change of power. "Most of those around me no longer have any hope," he says today. "These days, you see pictures of destroyed homes everywhere. A residential area is destroyed for the killing of a single person," he laments. "With all the casualties, nobody can support the war anymore."

Expert speaks of miscalculation

Iran expert Sydiq sees contradictory signals in the war aims formulated by Israel and the USA. "That alone speaks for a miscalculation, because wars usually require a strategy to turn military successes into political victories." This is not yet apparent, even after a month of attacks.

At the same time, the domestic political situation is worsening. "In a state of war, there is much less room, including for civil society forces." Nevertheless, Sydiq does not want to speak of a military dictatorship. "We'll have to wait and see what the balance of power is like when the war is over."

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