Why the negotiations between Iran and the USA have failed

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• The negotiations to end the war in Iran have failed.
• The US and Iranian governments have not backed down from their demands, which the other side has described as unacceptable.
• Both sides distrust each other and see themselves as the victors in the war.

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The negotiations between Iran and the USA to end the fighting in Iran and the Middle East have failed. After 21 hours of talks, Vice President JD Vance announced in the early hours of the morning in Islamabad that the two parties had not reached an agreement. Both delegations have left Pakistan.

These are the reasons:

Iran conflict

Despite ceasefire agreement: renewed fighting in Lebanon +++ Hezbollah against ceasefire

It is normal for delegations to enter negotiations with maximum demands. In successful talks, the parties find themselves somewhere in between. This was not the case in Islamabad.

The USA demanded a long-term guarantee from Iran that it would not develop nuclear weapons. Although Iran has never officially confirmed that it wants to build nuclear weapons, it does not want to be deprived of the right to enrich uranium. The value of nuclear deterrence - see North Korea - is more obvious than ever to the government in Tehran since the attacks by the USA and Israel.

Tehran is also demanding that the USA lift sanctions and pay reparations for the damage it has caused in the country with its attacks.

The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran effectively closed shortly after the start of the US-Israeli attacks, is a central point of contention. Washington is calling on Tehran to open it unconditionally. However, the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil and many goods are shipped, is the biggest trump card in the hands of the mullahs. They can use it to make the whole world pay for the attacks on their country - by raising energy prices and increasing inflation as a result. They are unlikely to relinquish this strategic lever without something in return.

After the talks ended, Vice President Vance declared, "They [the Iranians] have decided not to accept our terms."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry reported: "The success of this diplomatic process depends on the seriousness and goodwill of the other side, on their refraining from excessive demands and illegitimate demands, and on their recognition of Iran's legitimate rights and interests."

Both demand that each other accept their conditions and describe those of the other side as unacceptable. Vance made this clear with the statement that the points presented represented the final offer from the USA.

Both sides have done little to create a minimum of trust. The USA negotiated with Iran until shortly before the first attacks at the end of February, while preparations were in full swing and the final details for the strike against Revolutionary Leader Khamenei were probably being finalized with the Israeli army.

Iran's leadership is keeping all options open to damage the Middle East and the global economy.

President Trump has repeatedly made it clear in recent days that it does not matter to him what outcome the negotiations produce. If Iran did not accept a deal, its destruction would continue and its leadership would be killed.

An old lesson from negotiations to end wars is that success is likely when the armed conflict has reached a painful stalemate for both sides. This is not the case in Iran.

The US has been repeating for weeks that it has defeated Iran, virtually eliminated its military capabilities and wiped out its leadership.

Iran also sees itself as the victor because it is still able to fire missiles at its neighboring countries and US forces in the region, as well as blockade the Strait of Hormuz and charge high fees for passage.

This also shows that the leadership is capable of acting, even though the head of state Mojtaba Khamenei has never made a visible appearance since taking office and important decision-makers in politics, the army and intelligence services are repeatedly killed by military strikes.

Face disfigured and leg lost

Increasing evidence of serious injury to Khamenei

In the run-up to the negotiations, it was expected that Israel's war against Iran's ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, would become a sticking point in the negotiations. This continued even after the ceasefire. For Tehran, however, this conflict was one of the conditions of the ceasefire, while Washington excluded it after the agreement and thus gave Israel unspoken permission to continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

After the failed negotiations in Islamabad, there was hardly any talk of this point. It would probably only have become a problem if the USA and Iran had come closer together on the other issues.

What happened during the night

Shaky ceasefire - Dispute over the Hormuz Strait and Lebanon

So far, neither the Iranian nor the US government has terminated the ceasefire. However, it is uncertain, to say the least, that it will hold for long after the failure of diplomacy.

According to the US Central Command,two US Navy destroyers sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on the day of the negotiations to clear sea mines. In the process, they shot down an Iranian surveillance drone. The US wants to demonstrate that civilian ships can pass through the strait. So far, they have not responded.

This is not easing the situation on the world market. People will feel it at the filling station, where petrol prices will remain high. The same applies to the gas market. Ultimately, energy prices affect a great many goods that are transported or produced using a great deal of energy.

Although both sides are suffering from the conflict, no observer expects them to make another attempt at a negotiated solution any time soon. The positions are too far apart and the mutual mistrust is too great.

With material from SDA.