Europe's right is fuming Why the verdict against Marine Le Pen is a bombshell
Marine Le Pen is extremely popular in France - and a spectre for moderate political forces throughout Europe. Now a drastic ruling is thwarting her plans to run for president.
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- A political bombshell in France: on Monday, a court in Paris revoked right-wing populist Marine Le Pen's right to run for political office for five years with immediate effect.
- The conviction for embezzling EU funds could ruin Le Pen's candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, in which she was previously considered the favorite according to polls.
- Europe's right-wing is not the only one to sharply criticize the verdict against Marine Le Pen; even some of her critics have raised the question of whether the court may have gone too far. And even Elon Musk already has an opinion.
The conviction of the popular right-wing nationalist French politician Marine Le Pen for embezzlement to two years in prison with an ankle bracelet and her probable exclusion from the presidential election has hit France like a thunderbolt.
Opponents of Le Pen's right-wing party may rejoice. But the unprecedented verdict is likely to have serious consequences for French politics, which is already in crisis. The most important questions and answers on the far-reaching verdict.
What penalties did the court impose on Marine Le Pen?
Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling public funds. She is therefore banned from standing in elections for five years. The ban on holding office comes into force immediately. In addition, a fine of 100,000 euros and a four-year prison sentence were imposed, two of which are suspended. The court ordered electronic ankle bracelets for the other two. As soon as the verdict is final, it should become clearer how the sentence will be enforced in detail.
What does the verdict mean for Marine Le Pen?
The verdict is not yet final and Le Pen will appeal, as her lawyers have already announced. This will probably entail years of going through the courts.
Irrespective of this, her reputation has been seriously damaged by the guilty verdict and the severe penalty. It will be difficult for Le Pen to continue to tell off politicians from other parties as she has done so far. Le Pen will remain a member of parliament until the end of the parliamentary term. However, her political career seems to be on hold for the time being.
Does Marie Le Pen really no longer have a chance of running for president?
The 56-year-old has been aspiring to the Élysée Palace, the official residence of the French presidents in Paris, for years: the penalty imposed with immediate effect of no longer being able to stand for political office in elections therefore hits her hardest and most directly for the time being.
The penalty is not unusual in corruption trials in France. But it is likely to thwart Le Pen's plans to become a candidate in the upcoming presidential election in spring 2027. Because it is questionable whether a legally binding judgment by a higher court will be available by then. And in any case, there is a long run-up to the presidential election, which will begin in a year at the latest.
How will Marine Le Pen's supporters react to the ruling?
That is still unclear. The verdict could damage her reputation even among her sympathizers - especially as her Rassemblement National (RN) party also relies on the votes of the moderate conservative center to win elections. But the opposite could also happen: Her supporters could worship her even more as a supposed victim of justice and give her party a new boost.
Chairman Jordan Bardella immediately made it clear what Le Pen's party thinks of the verdict. He described it as a death blow for France's democracy.
What does the Le Pen verdict mean for the political mood in France?
Some political opponents may be rubbing their hands in glee at the far-reaching sentence - but it's not that simple. Even moderate politicians had warned against banning Le Pen from holding office. The public prosecutor's office had argued that the same law should apply to everyone. But now the most popular politician is being taken out of circulation - and with it someone whose supporters repeatedly question the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.
In November, Gérald Darmanin, the current Minister of Justice, described the scenario of Le Pen being banned from office as "deeply shocking". "The fight against Madame Le Pen will take place at the ballot box, not elsewhere." He added: "Let's not be afraid of democracy and avoid further widening the gap between the 'elites' and the vast majority of our fellow citizens."
Will Marine Le Pen now try to topple the government?
Most recently, Le Pen had opted for a moderate course: a sense of responsibility instead of rioting was the motto in most debates in parliament, where the minority government of centrist François Bayrou is already having a hard time.
Le Pen has so far refrained from supporting the votes of no confidence by the left-wing camp to oust Bayrou. It remains to be seen whether this will now change and the party will focus on fueling the political crisis. It will also depend on whether President Emmanuel Macron now finds himself in difficult waters.
Could the ruling against Marine Le Pen also deepen political rifts in Europe?
The risk Darmanin has highlighted applies not only to France - but also to Europe as a whole. The right-wing populist camp has already begun to exploit the ruling and is trying to fuel doubts about the independence of the judiciary in democratic states such as France.
Reactions to the verdict were swift: Italy's deputy head of government and leader of the right-wing Lega party, Matteo Salvini, spoke of a "declaration of war" aimed at excluding the former presidential candidate from political life.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who had recently moved much closer to Le Pen, expressed his solidarity with the right-wing politician with a "Je suis Marine" ("I am Marine") on X - as if she had become the victim of a judiciary controlled by political opponents.
The verdict also caused a reaction beyond Europe. The Kremlin in Moscow criticized it as a violation of democratic rules. "Our observations in European capitals show that there is no reluctance to overstep the boundaries of democracy in the political process," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in Moscow.
US presidential advisor Elon Musk also sharply criticized the verdict against French right-wing populist Marine Le Pen. "If the radical left cannot win by means of a democratic election, it abuses the legal system to put its opponents in prison," the technology billionaire wrote on his online service X on Monday.
What chances does the young party leader Jordan Bardella have?
Jordan Bardella has been head of the Rassemblement National since November 2022. His election marked the end of an era, as the name Le Pen is embedded in the identity of the party - and its predecessor, the Front National. Marine Le Pen's recently deceased father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founded the far-right Front National. His daughter renamed the party in 2018 in an effort to give it a more moderate face. The change at the top of the party was seen as a continuation of this strategy.
Bardella is now expected to position herself for the 2027 candidacy. Le Pen confirmed for the first time in an interview at the weekend that Bardella has what it takes to become president. However, it is questionable whether Le Pen is so easy to replace. The 29-year-old has considerably less political experience than her, even if the eloquent young politician is omnipresent in the media.
However, it is impossible to make a clear prediction about what will happen in a presidential election in France in two years' time - the country is known for spontaneous developments. This was demonstrated not least by the current president, Emmanuel Macron, who achieved astonishing popularity ratings within a very short space of time and became president in 2017, even though hardly anyone outside the Parisian political bubble knew him three years before the election.
