Allegedly leaked agenda Why Trump's peace plan would mean the end of Ukraine
A British newspaper claims to have learned how Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine. If the report is true, however, it would be the end of Ukraine itself.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- The Daily Mail claims to have gained an insight into Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine.
- The timetable envisages a ceasefire from April 20 and peace from May 9.
- Kiev would have to give up four regions forever. These are further conditions of the deal.
- The security arrangement hardly offers Ukraine any protection against future Russian attacks.
If what the Daily Mail writes is true, Ukraine's days are numbered. The British tabloid claims to have gained an insight into Donald Trump's peace plan, with which the 78-year-old seeks to end the war in Eastern Europe. For Kiev, the proposal is a nightmare.
According to Washington's agenda, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin were supposed to make contact by telephone these days. The first meeting would take place between the end of February and the beginning of March. A ceasefire would be declared from April 20. Peace would then be declared on May 9 - the highly symbolic "Victory Day" of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany.
This peace would be costly for Kiev: Ukraine would not only lose the four regions that Russia has annexed - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Zelensky would also have to give up its claim to the oblasts - and withdraw Ukrainian troops from Kursk. Kiev would also have to immediately suspend martial law and demobilize.
Who will now guarantee Ukraine's security? Nato certainly does not: Kiev is to be permanently denied membership. Instead, a demilitarized zone is to be drawn between the former warring parties, which European troops - possibly including British soldiers - are to secure.
No credible deterrent for Moscow
Instead of NATO membership, Ukraine should be allowed to join the EU by 2030. According to the Daily Mail, the USA does not want to deploy troops, but does want to help with economic reconstruction, which is estimated to cost 486 billion dollars.
The latter points could hardly make Kiev more conciliatory. By annexing the four oblasts, Ukraine would have to vacate domestic territory and lose economically significant areas. The armed forces would also have to hand over their fortified positions in these parts. Last but not least, the surrender of these regions should also be contractually binding.
The fact that the protection forces are to operate without US involvement is also not very encouraging: they would be a prerequisite for credible deterrence of Russia. It seems doubtful that Moscow would be deterred by the presence of the British or French once the Kremlin had recovered militarily.
The signal: land theft pays off
An attack on the British and French outside of NATO territory would not even trigger an alliance case. And even if Article 5 is invoked: Nato members are only obliged to provide appropriate support even then. What this looks like is up to each member.
Another problem is that there are only 20 days between the ceasefire and the declaration of peace. Organizing the protection force in this short time seems impossible. Kiev, on the other hand, would be completely defenceless due to the immediate demobilization, as Moscow does not have to release its contract soldiers.
Whether Trump really wants to impose such tough conditions on Zelenskyi remains to be seen. But if that is indeed his plan, the external impact would be fatal: Russia would get away with its plan to take territory from a neighboring country in a war that violates international law. Other countries such as China could feel emboldened with regard to Taiwan.
For the Ukrainian president, one can only hope that the Daily Mail's report is a hoax.
