Doubts about the USA as a protective power Will Europe get its own nuclear umbrella because of Trump?

Macron proposed greater European cooperation on nuclear deterrence back in 2020. The response was reserved for a long time - that is now changing. Answers to the most important questions.

Can we still rely on an America under Donald Trump? The crisis in relations between the USA and Europe has reignited the discussion about a European nuclear deterrent.

At a meeting of conservative leaders in Zagreb at the weekend, EPP leader Manfred Weber called on EU heads of state and government to promote the idea through talks. The Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, also advocates greater use of nuclear weapons by France and the UK to deter Russia in particular - but as part of the existing Nato protective umbrella.

"If something like this were to happen, it would be a sign of European self-assertion to the Russians, the Americans and the Chinese," says the former top diplomat Ischinger. He sees a special German role in this. However, the implementation of such plans would be lengthy and not without risk.

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French President Emmanuel Macron pleaded for more European sovereignty in the areas of the economy and defense back in 2020 during US President Donald Trump's first term in office. He offered the EU allies talks on a European nuclear deterrent based on French nuclear weapons.

However, the German Chancellor at the time, Angela Merkel, wanted nothing to do with this. Her successor Olaf Scholz was hardly interested either. Today's German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, showed sympathy for Macron's idea during the election campaign and declared his willingness to engage in talks after taking office.

Because doubts in Europe about the reliability of the USA as a nuclear protective power have grown dramatically since the start of Trump's second term in office a year ago. It is not only since the conflict with the USA over the island of Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, that there has been a growing realization that Europe must also reduce its dependence on the USA.

In the Bundestag last week, Merz called for the EU to become an independent power in a world that is reorganizing itself. Europe will only be able to assert its ideas "if we learn to speak the language of power politics ourselves". He did not say exactly what this might mean in the military sphere.

NATO's nuclear deterrent is currently based almost exclusively on US nuclear weapons, around 100 of which are still estimated to be stationed in Europe - some of them at the Büchel airbase in the Eifel region.

In an emergency, these bombs are to be used by fighter jets of the German armed forces. US nuclear bombs are also said to be stored in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey. There is no official information on this.

The nuclear weapons of France and Great Britain, which is no longer a member of the EU, currently only act as a supplement to NATO's nuclear deterrent.

According to estimates by the peace research institute Sipri, the USA has over 1770 nuclear weapons stationed for use, France over 280 and the UK over 120.

An independent European shield that protects the entire EU would probably require huge investments. How it could be organized is unclear. Theoretically, France could publicly guarantee that it would be prepared to use its nuclear weapons to protect European interests. It would also be conceivable to station French nuclear bombs in Germany or in eastern EU member states - i.e. closer to the main threat of Russia.

From the French point of view, however, the weapons would have to remain under strict French control and their storage sites would have to be protected by French armed forces. President Macron has made it clear that the decision on French nuclear weapons lies with France and its head of state. This is likely to be a problem for European partners.

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It would take many years to set up an independent European nuclear umbrella. This is also the main reason for the cautious debate: the USA is not so easy to replace as a nuclear protection power. There are also fears that Trump could withdraw US nuclear weapons if Europe discusses its own protective shield too strongly.

The former German ambassador in Washington, Ischinger, warns against this: "It could be that the Americans say: Oh, they're going to ally themselves with the French now, then our nuclear weapons will no longer be necessary as a deterrent. That must be prevented," he said. In his view, it is imperative to ensure that the European nuclear mind games "don't get the wrong idea in Washington". Germany could take on the role of a "bridge builder" between Europe and the USA.

Merz had already declared his willingness to discuss a joint nuclear deterrent during his inaugural visit to Macron. At a media conference last Thursday, the German head of government said: "These talks will be held. But these are talks that are at the very beginning, and they do not contradict nuclear sharing with the United States of America."

The leader of the European People's Party (EPP), CSU deputy leader Weber, who sat at the same table as Merz at a top-level meeting of the conservative party family on Friday and Saturday, called for increased efforts to achieve a European nuclear deterrent. He was "absolutely in favor" of the EU heads of state and government "sitting down together and then considering how this option of French nuclear weapons can be used for European security".

The international treaties do not allow for this. In the so-called Two-Plus-Four Treaty of 1990 with the four victorious powers of the Second World War, the then two German states reaffirmed their "renunciation of the production and possession of and control over nuclear, biological and chemical weapons". They also declared that "the united Germany will also abide by these obligations".

In addition, the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) only allows the five states USA, Russia, China, France and Great Britain to possess nuclear weapons.