China follows the USA's lead Are naval blockades becoming the new "sport for superpowers"?
The US is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and China is watching closely. Beijing interprets Donald Trump's actions as a green light to block sea routes itself. The start has already been made.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could become a dangerous precedent.
- China in particular is watching closely: after all, Donald Trump is providing a blueprint on how to flout international maritime law with impunity.
- Experts fear that Beijing will now assert its interests in the South China Sea unhindered: This could be particularly dangerous for Taiwan.
The fact that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes in the world should have become clear to everyone in recent weeks. First Iran blocks the bottleneck of the global economy and no longer lets any oil through. Then the USA threatens to bomb the strait. So Iran prefers to give in a little.
And then this: US President Donald Trump has a blockade put in place for his part. The consequence of the double blockade: even less oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the world market.
The US blockade primarily affects China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil. President Xi Jinping logically calls on the authority of international law. "We cannot allow", he says at a meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, "the world to return to the law of the jungle".
But Xi Jinping shouldn't actually be so unhappy that Donald Trump is following the law of the jungle. Provided the same law applies to everyone.
China is already rehearsing the blockade
While all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, a potentially even more explosive problem is brewing 3,700 nautical miles to the east. In the South China Sea, China is tightening a military noose around Scarborough Reef: the reef is located in the Philippines' economic zone, but Beijing doesn't seem particularly interested in this.
There have been military tensions for years, and now Beijing has apparently blocked access with ships and a floating barrier. This is confirmed by recent satellite images obtained by the Reuters news agency. The area is practically under Chinese control. This not only has far-reaching consequences for the local fishermen.
Who is to stop China from blocking Scarborough Reef and other important sea routes? With the blockade of Hormuz, the USA has made it clear that it is taking the right to block and control international waterways even without a UN mandate. The official justification is national security interests.
Experts are concerned that the US is effectively giving China a legal instrument. Beijing could argue that Washington has de facto changed international norms, which would allow China to assert its own interests through similar blockade tactics.
Experts fear that this approach could lead to a dangerous escalation. Carlyle Thayer, professor at the Australian Defense Force Academy, warns in "Time" magazine of a precedent "in which China could assert the right to blockade and control access to international waterways". The principle of free maritime trade, which is enshrined in the International Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), would be undermined.
China is seeing how far it can go
A third of global trade is shipped through the South China Sea, where China is in dispute with almost all of the neighboring countries over spheres of influence. If Beijing were to take its imposing navy seriously, it would have a completely different impact on global trade than the blockade of Hormuz. And then there is also the Taiwan issue ...
China could take Donald Trump's strongman policy as a model and enforce blockades in the waters around Taiwan - out of national security interests. The consequences for Taiwan and international trade would be serious. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has already threatened to use military force on several occasions to bring the island under its control.
The USA would hardly have any arguments against such action. At least none that are credible, as they themselves have carried out military interventions and coercive measures in the recent past. "I think the Chinese assume that the international community is probably less willing to 'punish' them at the moment," analyzes Oriana Skylar Mastro, professor and expert on China's military at Stanford University, in "Time" magazine.
Prof. Klemens Fischer from the University of Cologne sees Beijing's current blockade of the Scarborough Reef as a test case, as he tells Bild. They want to see whether they can get away with such blockades. The expert's concern is that Beijing will succeed and - step by step - take control of the region's sea routes.
Europe pays for the new sport of the superpowers
The Europeans, who are particularly dependent on the trade routes, would end up paying the price. If China takes control, transportation costs will rise, which would be reflected in higher prices for many products. Fischer warns: "If China controls access to important sea routes, the impact on global trade could be serious."
Europe could do little to defend itself. Fischer draws a gloomy conclusion: "If blocking sea routes that are vital to the global economy becomes a sport for the major powers, the Europeans will be the ones to foot the bill without being able to intervene."
The international community, and Europe in particular, now faces a major challenge, say experts. It must prevent the US approach to the Strait of Hormuz from serving as a blueprint for China and blocking sea routes becoming the new norm. Otherwise, the world could soon be in for a blockade era. International cooperation would then probably be over for the time being.
