"USS Abraham Lincoln" in the region Will there be US attacks soon? Some in Iran are hoping so
Some Iranians associate an attack with the hope that something will fundamentally change in the country. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The memory of state repression against the mass protests is still present. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Some Iranians associate an attack with the hope that something will fundamentally change in the country. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The memory of state repression against the mass protests is still present. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The presence of American warships is stirring up new fears in Iran. Talks from Tehran about despair, hope and the expectation of escalation.
27.01.2026, 17:52
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Fears of a US military strike are growing in Tehran, triggered by the presence of a US fleet.
- Many Iranians associate a possible attack with hopes for change, but at the same time there is mistrust of the government and doubts about its account of events.
- Experts believe that regime change through military strikes is unlikely - according to insiders, a political deal is more likely, which Trump wants to force through maximum pressure.
The fear of war is back - and with it a hope that does not sound euphoric, but exhausted. Concerns about possible US attacks have been circulating in the Iranian capital Tehran for days. The arrival of a massive US fleet in the region lends weight to the US government's threats. In Iran, which has been suffering from internet blockades for weeks, speculation is replacing news and longing is replacing analysis.
"Maybe America isn't thinking about our welfare," says Armin, 21, a student. "But you can hope for a better future." He says he sees no future in his studies, no sense in learning, while price explosions and a lack of prospects dominate everyday life.
He associates an attack with the hope that something will fundamentally change in the country. These are sentences that you hear more often these days, whether on the back seat of a cab, in a small supermarket or on a crowded subway train.
The search for ways out of the unthinkable
A fleet of warships, including the aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln", has now arrived near Iran. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened the Iranian leadership with military intervention - in response to the bloody suppression of the recent mass protests. Concerns are growing in Tehran. They are encountering a society that has begun to look for ways out of the unthinkable.
The pain caused by the state violence on the nights of January 8 and 9 runs deep. According to the US-based human rights network HRANA, more than 5,700 demonstrators have been killed and a further 17,000 cases are under investigation. Some media speak of even higher numbers of victims. It is the deadliest action by the state against its own population since the founding of the Islamic Republic.
Doubts about the government's claims
The government in Tehran presents a fundamentally different account of the events surrounding the protests. It claims that it is not the security forces who are responsible for the high number of deaths, but terrorists - controlled by arch-enemies Israel and the USA. The government speaks of 3117 fatalities, including civilians, police officers and around 700 alleged terrorists. Hardly anyone in the country believes this version of events.
"How can it be that terrorists are involved and shooting people at the same time and on the same day in every city in Iran?" asks Arian, a 32-year-old employee of the city administration. "There is no trust in this government anymore, it is only busy deceiving us." He would accept military intervention by the USA with indifference, he says.
Experts doubt the effectiveness of military attacks
For years, the country of around 90 million people has been shaken by ever new waves of protest. With each uprising, state action has become more violent. In addition to the domestic political upheavals, Iran's foreign policy position is also coming under pressure. Allies in the region are seen as weakened or defeated, and Israel and the USA already waged war against Iran last year.
At that time, Israel and the USA attacked central facilities of the Iranian nuclear program. The Islamic Republic's armed forces fired missiles at Tel Aviv and Israeli cities. The bombings in Tehran, in which scientists and officers were also killed in their homes, traumatized the inhabitants of the capital at the time and also welded them together. Today they look at war differently.
Many experts doubt that the leadership of the Islamic Republic could actually be brought down by military strikes. "The prevailing assumption in Washington is that even a limited military strike (...) would not be enough to topple the regime or fundamentally change its behavior," wrote Dennis Citrinowicz, Iran expert at the Israeli institute INSS.
Trump: "They want to make a deal"
Trump himself, writes Citrinowicz, is skeptical of protracted and costly wars. He prefers "quick, decisive victories". The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, has so far shown no willingness to back down. In the past few days, it has already prepared the population for a possible war. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammed Pakpur, declared that the armed forces were ready - "with their finger on the trigger".
Trump himself leaves the possibility of a different outcome open. "They want to make a deal. I know that. They've called several times. They want to talk," he told the news portal Axios. He referred to the US fleet off Iran and emphasized that it was larger than the one off the coast of Venezuela. The image is intended to underline the political pressure. Some in Tehran believe that it is less about an attack and more about a deal.
Insider believes deal is possible
An insider in Tehran believes it is more likely that the US will impose a naval blockade to stop Iran's oil exports and thus dry up the country's main source of income. "The plan is not regime change, but a political deal according to Trump's ideas," says a person familiar with the events.
Washington and Tehran negotiated directly with each other last year before the war broke out. A compromise was not reached. Trump made maximum demands, including the complete renunciation of uranium enrichment. A red line for Tehran then as now.
Mehrdad, 27, a gold trader, hopes things will improve without military intervention. An attack, he says, could destroy the infrastructure, exacerbate internal tensions and deepen divisions in society. "I'm afraid that an attack will only make things worse."
