Rising risks Is a global stock market crash looming? Swiss expert classifies
Crash warnings are not very helpful, says Raiffeisen investment manager Geissbühler - yet he sees clear overheating tendencies in tech stocks and certainly sees dangers in the consequences of US tariffs for the Swiss economy.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- According to Matthias Geissbühler, Head of Investments at Raiffeisen, stock market crashes are almost impossible to predict, but he warns of overvaluations in the technology sector and a declining euphoria in cryptocurrencies.
- The high US tariffs of 39% hit export-oriented Swiss SMEs and the watch industry in particular - many companies reacted by bringing forward deliveries.
- Large corporations such as Rolex and Richemont are less vulnerable thanks to global production, but Geissbühler is urgently calling for tariff reduction negotiations to strengthen the Swiss economy.
No panic on the Titanic - although this sounded different on the US stock exchange not long ago. According to several media reports, the only thing still holding the US economy together is artificial intelligence. How great is the danger really and what impact will this have on Switzerland?
blue News asks Matthias Geissbühler, Head of Investments at Raiffeisen. Despite geopolitical tensions, the customs dispute and uncertainties in the US, the stock market is proving surprisingly robust. "The situation is fundamentally very positive," says the investment manager.
"Even issues such as the customs chaos, the war in Ukraine and the US shutdown have hardly affected the markets." The European and Swiss stock markets in particular have performed strongly - with returns of around ten percent.
Crash forecasts should be treated with caution
Geissbühler doesn't think much of crash warnings: "Predicting a stock market crash is practically impossible. Such events are usually triggered by unforeseeable factors - such as a pandemic or 9/11." Nevertheless, he is observing certain overheating tendencies: "We are seeing a lot of euphoria in the technology sector, particularly around the topic of artificial intelligence. Valuations are very high in individual segments."
Cryptocurrencies also show parallels to the tech world: "The crypto market is closely linked to the technology sector. When the euphoria there subsides, this is also reflected in digital currencies - the current speculative momentum decreases and you see certain corrections," says Geissbühler.
The US tariffs are also making themselves felt on the stock market. On Tuesday, Daniel Jaeggi, co-founder of energy trader Mercuria, Alfred Gantner, co-founder of Partners Group, Johann Rupert, President of luxury group Richemont and Jean-Frédéric Dufour, CEO of Rolex, are said to have met with Donald Trump. What is striking: in Switzerland, the SMI and various Swiss companies have recovered after the mini-crash in April, but the above-mentioned companies are struggling on the stock market.
Swiss economy: customs duties act as a brake
Geissbühler is also concerned about the high US tariffs of 39 percent on Swiss products. "This is certainly not helpful for the Swiss economy, especially for SMEs that produce in Switzerland and cannot simply avoid them." The watch industry is particularly affected, but has found a solution: "During the short transition phase after Liberation Day, many watch companies were able to significantly increase their deliveries to the USA at short notice - their stocks are full until next year."
Nevertheless, he does not see any panic on the Swiss stock exchange: "The listed companies are often globally positioned and some of them already produce in the USA - they are therefore less affected than you might think." Nevertheless, he sees a need for action: "It would be urgently necessary to negotiate the tariffs down - that would be a clear benefit for the Swiss economy."
Geissbühler also hopes that something will change in this area in 2026. He says: "The impact on the Swiss economy will only become apparent over time. At the moment, we are only seeing isolated effects of the US tariffs. Depending on the outcome of the negotiations, the situation could change for the better or for the worse."
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analyses and assessments contained herein are based on thorough research, but are no substitute for an individual assessment by experts. Developments on the financial markets are influenced by numerous, sometimes unpredictable factors. Investments in shares, cryptocurrencies and other financial products are associated with risks, including a possible loss of capital.
