From tariff cudgel to share price rocket Is Trump playing a rigged game on the stock market?
Donald Trump announces tariffs - and withdraws them shortly afterwards. At the same time, share prices soar. Coincidence or calculation? An expert assesses the situation.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- US President Trump halted his tariff plans for a short time, causing the stock markets to rise sharply.
- It is now suspected that he may have deliberately increased buying pressure.
- Statements on Trump's Truth Social platform apparently encouraged many people to buy shares, which led to a market impulse, according to ZKB expert Simon Lustenberger.
- Although the market calmed down somewhat, the situation remains volatile due to remaining base tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, according to Lustenberger.
Does US President Donald Trump even have a plan? Sometimes he lashes out with the tariff hammer, sometimes he backtracks. Sometimes he negotiates with countries, sometimes he doesn't.
Now Trump has stopped his tariff hammer again for the time being. This has had an impact: share prices have been rising rapidly since Wednesday.
Hours before the tariff freeze, Trump wrote on Truth Social that now was the right time to buy shares. This fuels rumors: Did Trump manipulate the stock market? It remains to be seen whether the incident will be investigated. After all, many employees of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have been dismissed.
According to Simon Lustenberger, Head of Investment Strategy at ZKB, Trump may indeed have wanted to stimulate the desire to buy. But there is more to it than that.
Trump encourages people to buy shares
"It is relatively difficult to estimate how much was really planned," Lustenberger explains to blue News. "On the previous Sunday, Trump and his advisors were still discussing what the tariff plan should look like." Whether Trump already knew at this point that he was withdrawing his plan or whether he was ultimately overwhelmed by market pressure is something we will never know for sure.
What should not be forgotten: "Many people probably reacted to Trump's statement on Truth Social and bought shares," says Lustenberger. "So Trump must have known in advance that he would withdraw the tariffs," estimates Lustenberger.
In fact, experts have now analyzed that demand for shares skyrocketed just a few minutes before the announcement. Demand for call options has also risen.
Investors are effectively betting that the market will soar on the same day. Anyone who invested a few thousand dollars before the announcement could have become a millionaire within minutes.
Was this insider trading? Lustenberger says: "It's impossible to say who bought shares at that moment." It is clear that Trump wanted to steer something, but whether it was planned that way will never be known for sure.
What does the situation look like now?
And where is the market now? "What we saw in the US on Wednesday was a reaction of relief. The market calmed down somewhat. It showed us that there is a certain willingness to compromise on the part of the US after all." The fact that the markets have stabilized somewhat and risen again is a good sign.
But we must not forget: Although the reciprocal tariffs have been lifted at the moment, the basic tariff of 10 percent still prevails. "In the end, you don't know what will actually come out of the negotiations," says Lustenberger.
According to the expert, the markets remain very volatile. "The environment will only calm down once the results are clear and companies and countries can better adapt to the market and make better assessments."
The next step is clear: "The states will now wait and see. There will be discussions with individual countries and perhaps we will have a result by then," says Lustenberger. The sooner a result is achieved, the sooner we can adapt to the situation. That would bring security.
Is the worst over now? The investment strategist believes that there is now no immediate threat of a global recession and that share prices will recover, but adds: "In the current political environment, you can't be one hundred percent sure about the stock market."
