The economy KOF Institute expects gloomy year 2026
The customs deal with the USA has economic researchers at ETH looking to the future with a little more optimism. Nevertheless, they believe 2026 will be a difficult year.
15.12.2025, 10:58
SDA
The KOF Institute is forecasting growth in gross domestic product (GDP in real terms, excluding international sporting events) of 1.1 percent for 2026, according to a statement issued on Monday. This is a higher figure than the 0.9 percent previously forecast. However, it is miles away from average growth, which experts put at 1.8 percent.
The experts at the university also speak of "gloomy prospects" for the Swiss economy. The deal with the USA, thanks to which US tariffs on Swiss goods have been reduced from 39% to 15%, has led to some relief in terms of trade policy. At the same time, however, the international environment has deteriorated slightly.
Where is the fiscal package?
In the eurozone, for example, growth was weak in the third quarter and in Germany the fiscal program is likely to be further delayed, according to the economic researchers. There is also bad news from the USA, where there are various signs of an economic slowdown. At the same time, the Chinese slump in demand is continuing.
According to the augurs, all of this means that companies are reluctant to invest. And the construction industry is also not picking up speed.
At least real wages are rising
Nevertheless, private consumption remains a pillar of the economy. And the chances are good that this will remain the case thanks to further real wage growth. According to the KOF Institute, a somewhat slower wage growth in combination with very low inflation of 0.3 percent speaks in favor of real wage growth. Unemployment is also not looking too gloomy: It should only rise slightly to 3.1 percent.
The experts assume that things will improve after 2026. They predict growth of 1.7% for 2027 (previously: +1.6%). However, they also emphasize that the forecast risks are "mostly on the downside". The GDP forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.4%.
