France Macron's power poker fails: chaos and a shift to the right loom
He wanted to soar high with risky parliamentary elections, but now France's President Emmanuel Macron is likely to fall into the deep end. Not only is his camp likely to lose its relative majority in the National Assembly and become only the third strongest force.
01.07.2024, 19:25
SDA
He, who does not want to go down in history as a pioneer of the right-wing nationalists at any price, could now actually hand over the keys of power to the first right-wing foreign government in decades as a result of his poker.
Regardless of the exact outcome of the decisive election round next Sunday, the ruler of the Élysée Palace, who has so far preferred to hold all the reins himself, will have to share his power. Whether with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), which triumphed in the first round of voting, or the new left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, which came second, depends on two factors over which Macron has little influence: the strategic positioning of the parties and voting behavior.
Firewall planned against the right
Only 76 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly were allocated in the first round. The rest will follow in the run-off elections. This includes all those for whom at least 12.5 percent of registered voters in their constituency voted.
The big question: Will all parties beyond the extreme right in all constituencies with three potential candidates for the run-off really agree to withdraw their third-placed candidates and make a recommendation for the second strongest challenger to the RN candidate? On election night, the left-wing alliance and Macron's centrist camp announced the construction of such a firewall against the advance of the extreme right.
It remains to be seen how the deeply divided conservative Républicains, who are wavering between an alliance with Le Pen and a clear stance against the far right, will react. The practice of alliances of convenience for the second round has a long tradition in France with its majority voting system. Given the high approval ratings for the right, it remains to be seen to what extent this can now slow them down.
Macron's strategy did not work
After all, there is nothing to suggest that, following the record result for the RN in the first round of elections, support for the right-wing populists is now crumbling. According to a survey by the Ipsos Institute, 74% of voters in France are dissatisfied with Macron. And his strategy of disqualifying the parties to the left and right of his center camp as unelectable extremists or their allies has clearly not worked.
The liberal Macron and his significantly smaller camp in parliament from next Sunday, according to forecasts, are definitely facing an enormous challenge. Because even if they manage to join forces with the left-wing alliance to stop the right's grip on power, the two camps, which have mostly had opposing views to date, would have to come together to form a government program. With the rejection of the extreme right as the main common denominator, this threatens to end in political chaos and gridlock.
EU calls for austerity measures instead of billions in additional spending
In any case, France's high level of debt offers little scope for costly new visions for the future. Just two weeks ago, the EU Commission also launched deficit proceedings against France for excessive new debt. Instead of lavish additional spending amounting to tens of billions of euros, which the left-wing camp has been using to win votes, France should in fact be setting out a radical austerity course, which even Macron has so far been unwilling to do.
It seems clear that the young Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, on whom Macron placed a lot of hope when he was appointed at the beginning of the year, will probably not be able to remain in office given the potential future power constellations. But it remains to be seen who Macron could appoint as prime minister if the coup of a kind of grand coalition against the right should surprisingly succeed. The left-wing alliance, which includes the Greens, Communists, Socialists and the Left Party, did not enter the early parliamentary elections with a lead candidate - and no one is considered the favorite. However, it is certain that the future prime minister will have more influence in view of the changed balance of power. Macron, on the other hand, will lose power.
Right-wing government a spectre for Berlin and Brussels
From the point of view of many on the left, French people with a history of migration and probably also Berlin and Brussels, an RN government would be even more of a spectre than a blocked France. Not only do the right-wing nationalists have little love for their close partner Germany, they also want to massively curb Brussels' influence. Instead of not wanting to exclude too much strategically in defense of Ukraine against the Russian aggressor, as Macron does, the party sets clear limits, for example on arms deliveries, with its alleged closeness to Russia.
In the end, Macron bears responsibility for these prospects, which are sometimes perceived as bleak and which France is heading towards. After all, it was he who instigated the new elections in the first place, whether out of naivety or overconfidence. His tactics to gain more power have failed. A shift to the right and a shift in power are certain in France. Regardless of the outcome of the run-off elections, one thing is certain: This time, Macron, a strategist prone to impulsiveness, has made a mistake.
