Weather event of superlatives "Melissa" races across Jamaica - and breaks historic records
Hurricane "Melissa" has devastated Jamaica. Are storms becoming more frequent, more extreme and more dangerous? A meteorologist assesses the situation.
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- Hurricane "Melissa" hit Jamaica with wind speeds of up to 295 km/h.
- With a core pressure of 892 hPa, the storm reached a record value for an Atlantic hurricane, comparable only to the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935.
- Meteorologist Michael Eichmann sees the warm deep water as an amplifier of the extreme weather event.
Hurricane "Melissa" hit Jamaica with full force. In view of the severe damage, the government declared the Caribbean island a disaster area. As yet, there is no reliable information on potential fatalities.
It is a storm of superlatives: wind gusts of up to 295 kilometers per hour make "Melissa" a hurricane of the highest category 5. At landfall on Tuesday, the minimum core pressure - the air pressure in the center (eye) of the storm - was only 892 hPa.
Together with the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, this corresponds to the lowest value ever recorded during the landfall of an Atlantic hurricane. On the open sea, Wilma (2005) with 882 hPa and Gilbert (1988) with 888 hPa were even lower. However, these weakened somewhat before making landfall.
With "Erin" and "Humberto", there have already been two hurricanes of the highest category in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. So far, there have only been more than two in 2005 with four.
"The higher the temperature, the more energy"
Are hurricanes becoming more frequent, more extreme and more dangerous? Michael Eichmann, meteorologist at MeteoNews, puts this into perspective: "There are different points of view in the scientific community." It is undisputed that climate change is leading to higher water temperatures in the oceans.
This acts as fuel for tropical storms like "Melissa": "The higher the temperature, the more energy they can draw from the water," says Eichmann. In the case of "Melissa", this effect was even intensified: "Normally, a tropical storm stirs up the sea and mixes it with cooler deep water," says Eichmann. This causes a slow-moving system to weaken itself. In the Caribbean, however, the water is currently warm even at greater depths, which means that this cooling effect has only had a minor impact.
Increasing number of hurricanes
However, Eichmann also refers to studies that contradict the theory "the warmer, the stronger the storm". According to these studies, wind shear - i.e. the change in wind direction or speed with height - is stronger in a warmer climate. "Especially in the early stages, high wind shear is poison for the development of a hurricane because the fragile storm system is pulled apart."
A look at the data shows that since 1851, there has been a long-term average increase in so-called major hurricanes - i.e. hurricanes of category 3 or higher - in the North Atlantic. However, according to Eichmann, it should be noted that tropical storms have only been monitored using satellite images since 1979. This means that storms that only rage on the water and do not directly affect people are also recorded.
Rain as the main threat
Even though the storm has now left Jamaica, the danger there has not yet passed, according to the local authorities.
"Melissa" has damaged houses and roads in Jamaica, flooded entire areas and cut off the power supply to more than 530,000 households. Warmer air can absorb more moisture. This means that hurricanes today tend to bring more rain than in the past. This further increases their destructive power.
"In most cases, the most dangerous thing away from the hurricane center is not the wind, but the amount of rain," says Eichmann. Especially as the risk of flooding and debris flows increases.
The full extent of the damage in Jamaica is still unclear.
