Risk of impact continues to rise Newly discovered asteroid keeps scientists on their toes

The risk of the recently discovered asteroid 2024YR4 hitting the Earth is higher than previously thought. Nasa has had to change its forecast again.

DPA

19.02.2025, 22:36

dpa

The probability of an asteroid impact is still extremely low: however, according to new calculations, the risk of "2024YR4" hitting the Earth in December 2032 has been upgraded from around 1.2 to 3.1 percent since the end of January. This was announced by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the US space agency NASA on its website.

Nasa is alarmedA newly discovered asteroid could hit the Earth in 2032

However, the risk classification on the so-called Turin Scale remains at level 3: a possible impact cannot be ruled out. The object should therefore be monitored.

According to estimates by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the asteroid has a diameter of 40 to 90 meters. It was discovered by a telescope in Chile at the end of December 2024. If the probability of an impact is at least one percent, the IAWN intervenes and collects data.

Impact would cause severe regional damage

Should "2024 YR4" actually hit the Earth, the European Space Agency Esa estimates that it could explode in the atmosphere and cause damage with a pressure wave and heat. It could also cause a crater with a diameter of more than one kilometer.

According to Esa, an asteroid of this size hits the Earth on average every few thousand years. The James Webb telescope should provide a more accurate estimate of its size and the heat it radiates.

According to Esa, the asteroid should initially move away from the Earth in the next few months on its elongated orbit around the sun and disappear from view. It can then be observed again in 2028, with the asteroid coming closest to Earth on December 22, 2032.