El Niño plays a role Next heat record could come as early as 2027
2024 was hot, but the next record year could come as early as 2027. What the WMO says about this - and why El Niño plays a decisive role.
28.05.2026, 06:53
dpa
2024 was the hottest year since records began, but according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the record is likely to fall soon. The probability that one of the years 2026 to 2030 will have an even higher global average temperature is 86 percent, the WMO announced in Geneva. The record value in 2024 was around 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial level (1850-1900).
The WMO quotes the lead author, Leon Hermanson from the UK Met Office, as saying that it could be as early as 2027: "An El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood that the following year, 2027, will be the next record year."
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs naturally every few years. It causes the ocean in the Pacific off South America to warm up. The consequences are above-average rainfall in Central and South America and parts of Central Africa, for example, and droughts in Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa, among others. In Europe, the direct effects are limited.
New heat record
According to the report, the global average near-surface air temperature is likely to be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees above pre-industrial levels this year and in the next three years. There is a 91% probability that at least one of these will be above the maximum limit of 1.5 degrees set in the Paris Climate Agreement, as was already the case in 2024.
The experts also consider it possible that the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed the 1.5 degree target, with a probability of 75 percent. However, according to the definition widely used to date, the Paris climate target is only considered to have been exceeded if the average temperature over an average of 20 years is higher.
The global climate agreement adopted in Paris in 2015 aims to limit the man-made rise in temperature by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to avert the worst consequences of climate change. The new WMO report summarizes forecasts from 13 different institutes, including the German Weather Service.
