Politics Presidential election in Iran: duel between reformer and hardliner

After a historically low voter turnout in Iran, moderate presidential candidate Massud Peseshkian and hardliner Said Jalili will go into a run-off. Before the vote next Friday, a short campaign phase will begin with two TV duels on Monday and Tuesday. The defeated parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, also a conservative, has already pledged his support for Jalili.

Around 61 million voters were called upon on Friday to elect a new head of government. Out of a total of 80 candidates, the so-called Guardian Council, a powerful Islamic supervisory body, had only approved six as candidates. Two of them withdrew. The electoral authorities counted a total of just over 24 million votes cast. This puts the voter turnout at a historically low 40 percent.

Reform candidate backs middle-class positions

Peseschkian is 69 years old and comes from the north-west. During the election campaign, the previously rather inconspicuous politician campaigned for renewed trust between the government and the people, who are massively disappointed with politics after failed attempts at reform, political repression and an economic crisis. Peseschkian was the only moderate politician to be admitted. Like many politicians from the reform camp, he called for an improvement in relations with the West.

During the election campaign, the politician criticized the headscarf policy and campaigned for votes with middle-class positions. At the same time, Peseshkian expressed his loyalty to religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the powerful Revolutionary Guards and praised the attack on Israel with drones and missiles. In the TV debates, he described himself as a conservative politician who believes reforms are necessary.

Loyal candidate Jalili only in second place

The second-placed Jalili belonged to the closest circle of power early on and worked in the office of religious leader Khamenei. Under the controversial former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Jalili was chief negotiator in the nuclear negotiations. He enjoys broad support from radical and loyal supporters of the system.

The political scientist with a doctorate comes from the north-eastern metropolis and pilgrimage city of Mashhad. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), the arch-conservative man was wounded at the front and lost part of his right leg. After the war, he taught in the capital Tehran before embarking on a career in the Foreign Ministry. Jalili is considered a staunch supporter of the ideology of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

Moderate government would have limited room for maneuver

A moderate president would have limited opportunities to shape the government, says political scientist Tareq Sydiq from Marburg University. "With a parliament dominated by hardliners, with a supreme religious leader who has repeatedly signaled that too moderate a policy is not really desirable - I wouldn't expect much room for manoeuvre," explains the Iran expert. "Of course, this also influences the otherwise low level of enthusiasm for this election." After all, a moderate president is unlikely to be able to keep his election promises.

Enthusiasm for elections has been low for years, the expert continues. He cites the disastrous record of previous governments, the protests and their violent repression as well as the political repression against headscarf violations. "All of this will tend to depress the mood, both in terms of political and social rights," says Sydiq. Expectations of an improvement in the political and economic situation as a result of the election are likely to be low. The mood is characterized above all by "disillusionment and hopelessness".

Well-known singer speaks out

A good 60 percent of those eligible to vote stayed away from the polls. Prominent singer Sherwin Hajipur, who was awarded a Grammy for his protest anthem "Baraye", also pointed this out on social media. "Above all, we need to hear the voice of those who did not go to the polls," he wrote. In March, the singer was sentenced to three years and eight months in prison for his song, which was released during the uprisings in the fall of 2022, according to his own statements.