Economy Purchasing managers' index just below growth level in February
Export-oriented Swiss industry has recently become somewhat more confident despite the increasing protectionism of the Trump administration and rising uncertainties. Meanwhile, the mood among mainly domestically oriented service providers remains good.
03.03.2025, 10:28
SDA
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for industry rose by 2.1 points to 49.6 points in February (seasonally adjusted). PMI values above 50 points indicate growth and values below that indicate a decline.
As was the case last fall, the index is thus only just below the growth threshold, UBS reported on Monday. It publishes the index together with the purchasing and supply management association Procure. The indicator has now remained below the 50-point mark for more than two years.
The PMI in February was supported in particular by the recent decline in orders on hand, which stabilized in February. An improved order situation also has the potential to have a positive impact on other sub-components and thus the overall index in future, write the big bank's economists.
Services sector remains clearly positive
Although the PMI for the services sector was 0.4 points lower in February than in January, at 56.8 points it is still well above the growth threshold, more or less confirming the strong increase seen in January.
Both the business activity and employment components remained well above the 50-point mark in February, indicating growth. The confirmation of the January values for these two key components points to sustained expansion in the service sector, writes UBS.
This is also supported by the development of the new orders component, which continued to grow. Although the order backlog component fell compared to the previous month, it is still well above the growth threshold.
More protectionism feared
Despite the improvement in industry and the continued good state of the service sector, companies remain challenged. In the latest PMI survey, companies were again asked about their experiences and expectations with regard to protectionist measures.
According to the survey, a large majority of industrial companies still do not see themselves affected by trade barriers. However, fears that such measures could be introduced in the course of the year are increasing. In February, 55% of those surveyed expected an increase in such measures in the coming twelve months. This is 15 percent more than in January and December.
No more companies stated that they expected trade barriers to decrease over the next twelve months.
The assessment in the services sector was different. In February, the proportion of respondents who expected an increase in protectionist measures fell back below 30%.
