Extreme differences Researchers draw 5 radical scenarios for the Switzerland of the future
From a high-tech society to social disintegration: researchers have outlined five possible futures for Switzerland - and calculated what they would mean for the climate.
05.05.2026, 10:28
05.05.2026, 20:44
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- Researchers have developed five possible future scenarios for Switzerland up to 2100.
- They range from technological sustainability to social disintegration and division.
- Which development occurs has a decisive influence on emissions and the environment.
According to the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), it is not possible to predict exactly what Switzerland will look like at the end of the century. Nevertheless, it is important to know possible social development paths, the research institute announced on Tuesday. This is because social, economic and political developments influence resource consumption, climate change and infrastructure requirements, among other things.
In order to make such developments tangible, the WSL team developed five possible future paths for Switzerland. They describe different forms of coexistence, economic activity and political action up to the year 2100.
To develop the scenarios, the WSL team held discussions with around 60 scientists from 20 research institutions. A computer program calculated consistent scenarios from the results.
blue News shows the 5 scenarios:
Frugal Switzerland: less growth, more quality of life
In this future, Switzerland consciously decides against a pure growth model. The focus is shifting towards frugality, regional cycles and social cohesion.
The economy will grow more slowly, but will be more stable and less susceptible to crises. Consumption is being reduced, sharing models and local production are gaining in importance. Agriculture is also focusing more on sustainability and self-sufficiency.
Politically, an approach that prioritizes the common good over profit dominates. The state plays a more active role in managing resources and infrastructure. At the same time, society is comparatively stable and based on solidarity.
This scenario is clearly positive for the climate: low energy consumption, low emissions and less pressure on natural resources.
Efficient Switzerland: high-tech meets climate protection
Here, the balancing act is successful: Switzerland remains economically strong - and at the same time becomes significantly more sustainable. This is made possible above all by technological progress.
Renewable energies, digitalization and efficiency improvements are shaping the country. Transport, industry and buildings are being heavily electrified, processes optimized and resources better used.
Society is open and internationally networked. Education and innovation are key drivers. The state sets clear framework conditions, but leaves plenty of room for the market and technology.
The result: a relatively high quality of life combined with falling emissions. This scenario is considered one of the most favorable for tackling climate change.
Conflict-ridden Switzerland: isolation, insecurity, standstill
This scenario describes a world in which international cooperation disintegrates and Switzerland also comes under greater pressure.
Geopolitical tensions increase and economic relations become more difficult. Switzerland reacts with isolationism and a stronger inward focus. Migration, energy supply and security become areas of conflict.
The economy is stagnating or shrinking in some cases, innovation is losing momentum. At the same time, mistrust is growing within society.
Climate policy is falling behind - not out of conviction, but due to a shift in priorities. The result: higher emissions, inefficient systems and growing vulnerability.
Unequal Switzerland: prosperity for the few, pressure for the many
In this picture of the future, society is drifting apart. An economically strong elite benefits from globalization and technology - while large sections of the population are left behind.
Access to education, health and resources is distributed more unequally. This divide is also evident in climate protection: wealthy groups can afford to adapt, others cannot.
Although the economy remains efficient, it is becoming increasingly socially fragile. Politically, tensions arise as part of the population feels left behind.
The result is a Switzerland with high inequality and selective progress - including in the area of climate, where measures exist but do not reach everyone.
Resource-intensive Switzerland: growth at any price
This scenario relies entirely on economic growth - driven by technology, globalization and high consumption.
Switzerland remains prosperous and dynamic, but at the expense of the environment. Energy consumption and resource requirements rise sharply, fossil fuels play an important role for a long time.
Innovation is mainly used to secure growth - not primarily to achieve sustainability. Climate protection comes late or is compensated for by technical solutions.
In short: high prosperity, but a massive ecological burden. In the long term, this creates new risks for infrastructure, the environment and society.
No probabilities
WSL geographer Lena Gubler emphasizes that none of the scenarios is more likely than another. "It's about exploring variants of what the future could look like, based on if-then considerations, and not about saying anything about probability," she was quoted as saying in the press release.
A new publication by the National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) now presents the modeled greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario up to the year 2100.
