No all-clear Researchers lower worst-case climate scenario - and Trump rejoices
Leading scientists no longer assume that the previous worst-case climate scenario will materialize. But that is no reason to sit back and relax.
19.05.2026, 19:55
19.05.2026, 19:59
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Climate researchers have weakened the previous worst-case scenario for global warming due to the rapid expansion of renewable energies.
- At the same time, according to new calculations, the 1.5-degree target is hardly achievable in the long term.
- Scientists and authorities therefore emphasize that, despite positive developments, the all-clear cannot be given for climate change.
Climate researchers have revised the previous worst-case scenario for global warming downwards in view of the expansion of renewable energies. However, both climate researchers and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment emphasize that this should by no means be seen as an all-clear.
At the same time, the scientists have revised the best-case scenario for the period up to the end of the century upwards: they assume that the target of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial age will be achieved, at least in the interim.
The new scenarios are based on scientists from the World Climate Research Program, a research unit whose work is incorporated into the UN climate reports, the results of which serve as the basis for discussions at world climate conferences.
Growth in renewable energies has an impact
The main author, Dutch scientist Detlef van Vuuren, explains the reasons for this in an explanatory contribution to the specialist article. Among other things, he points to the lower costs of renewable energies, which have increased faster than expected in recent years. However, even in this mitigated scenario with global warming of 3.5 degrees by 2100, the consequences are still serious.
At the other end of the scale, even the most optimistic scenarios are now gloomier than in the past. As greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise in recent years, it is no longer possible to keep global warming consistently below 1.5 degrees. Which scenario the world ultimately ends up with depends on how effectively - or not - countries pursue climate protection.
Trump celebrated
The Federal Environment Ministry considers the mitigation of the most pessimistic scenario to be a success for climate policy. However, even a warming of 1.5 degrees should not be underestimated. "We can already foresee what a world with 1.5 degrees of warming alone would mean: more droughts, heatwaves, forest dieback, floods and other extreme weather events."
US President Donald Trump celebrated the removal of the scenario on his Truth Social network as a supposed admission that the previous projections had been wrong. He wrote of "climate alarmism".
