Swiss study Right-wing parties benefit from uncertainty - unless you see it as an opportunity
Right-wing populist parties flourish in uncertain times. A study has now found out: People who perceive uncertainty as an opportunity rather than a threat are less likely to vote right-wing.
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- A positive attitude towards uncertain circumstances leads to a lower willingness to vote for right-wing populists.
- This was the result of a study conducted by a research group at ETH Zurich in Germany.
- Those who see uncertainty as an opportunity also generally have a more positive attitude towards diversity and social change.
How people view an uncertain future affects their political voting behavior. Researchers at ETH Zurich have discovered this in a new study. According to the study, people with a positive attitude towards uncertainty are less likely to vote for right-wing populist parties.
Optimism also has a positive effect on attitudes towards social diversity and social change in general. The study was conducted in Germany from December 2024 to March 2025: the time of this year's federal elections and the associated election campaign.
More positive attitudes towards diversity too
For the study, 745 people took part in several surveys, providing a representative picture of the German population. The participants were divided into two groups: a test group and a control group.
At the beginning of the study, the test group was shown a presentation outlining the positive effects of safety. The participants then had to answer questionnaires. The control group was given the same questionnaires - but without having seen a presentation about the opportunities that insecurity brings.
The results confirmed the researchers' theses. While acceptance of diversity and social change increased in the test group, the willingness to vote for the AfD decreased.
Opportunity for democracy
However, the study also makes a further point: people's attitudes towards uncertainty are changeable. Study director Ruri Takizawa sees an opportunity here: democracies could be strengthened again by promoting a viewpoint in which uncertainty has positive connotations.
Many experts interpret the strong support for parties on the far right of the center as a result of uncertain conditions in society and global politics, such as wars or the coronavirus pandemic.
