Geophysicist on Santorini "Strong earthquake is more likely than volcanic eruption"
Volcano researcher Christian Hübscher is keeping a close eye on developments on Santorini. In addition to figures, data and facts, the fear of the island's inhabitants is an indication of the seriousness of the situation.
06.02.2025, 06:31
06.02.2025, 06:47
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for itself
- Hundreds of earthquakes with a magnitude of between 3 and 4.7 on the Richter scale have shaken the Greek island of Santorini in recent days.
- Scientists around the world are discussing the causes and possible further development of the series of earthquakes.
- Most experts agree that the frequencies are more likely to be controlled by tectonic activity.
- In this respect, a strong main quake - if at all - is more likely than a volcanic eruption.
International scientists are discussing the causes and possible further development of the series of earthquakes on the Greek island of Santorini. Geophysicist Christian Hübscher is involved in the discussions - and can also see a philosophical side to his job: "Volcanoes and earthquakes are like life: You have to live it forwards, but you can only understand it backwards," he says, echoing Søren Kierkegaard. Hübscher heads the Marine Geophysics department at the University of Hamburg and has been researching the volcanoes of Santorini in close collaboration with Greek colleagues for almost 20 years.
The eerie series of earthquakes currently shaking the islands of Santorini, Amorgos, Ios and Anafi is being closely monitored by the expert. "It is very intense and rightly causes concern," he says. However, he does not believe that the two volcanoes in the region - Santorini itself and the underwater volcano Kolumbo, located around seven kilometers to the northeast - are responsible. "Most experts agree that the frequencies are more likely to be controlled by tectonic activity." In this respect, a strong main earthquake - if at all - is more likely than a volcanic eruption.
One of the volcanoes is "slightly active"
As part of their analysis of the current series of earthquakes on Wednesday, Greek scientists detected "slight activity" at the Santorini volcano. This worries people in the region - could the earthquakes cause a volcanic eruption? "There may be feedback mechanisms between the earthquakes and the volcanoes," confirms Hübscher. "But the hypocenters of the quakes are not located where the magma chambers are, but under the small island of Anydros around 170 kilometers to the northeast. That's quite good for now."
People's fears are no coincidence. When the Santorini volcano last erupted, in 1950, it was only a small eruption. However, the last eruption of Columbo around 1650 killed 70 people, caused a tsunami and a huge and toxic gas cloud.
Five eruptions so far
"We have studied Kolumbo intensively. It has erupted five times in its geological history, with a few tens of thousands of years between each eruption," says Hübscher. As the last eruption was less than 400 years ago, the risk is statistically rather low.
However, there could be a major earthquake - but nobody can know that. "There are always extreme forecasts from individual experts, but that's just guesswork," says Hübscher. However, he is concerned that the Santorini are leaving their island - a good two thirds of the 16,000 inhabitants have fled to the mainland because of the quakes. "The locals are experienced in earthquakes and have a good feel for their island. If they leave, it's because the situation is extreme."
People disembark from a ferry in the port of Piraeus on which they left Santorini.
Image: dpa
People disembark from a ferry in the port of Piraeus on which they left the island of Santorini.
Image: dpa
View of the sea of houses on the Greek island of Santorini.
Image: dpa
People disembark from a ferry in the port of Piraeus on which they left Santorini.
Image: dpa
People disembark from a ferry in the port of Piraeus on which they left the island of Santorini.
Image: dpa
View of the sea of houses on the Greek island of Santorini.
Image: dpa
Expedition to the area of the earthquake swarm
Hübscher himself agrees with Kierkegaard: as part of an expedition, he plans to return to the region in March to conduct research and, at least retrospectively, gain insights into the current series of earthquakes. On board the research vessel Maria S. Merian, an interdisciplinary team will search for previously unknown underwater volcanoes - and investigate whether the current earthquake swarm has changed the seabed through landslides and faults or the escape of liquid and gas.