Supercell thunderstorms are becoming more frequent and more severe - Switzerland particularly affected

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• Supercell thunderstorms are particularly dangerous. They regularly cause major damage, injuries and even deaths.
• As a result of man-made climate change, the risk of these storms is increasing in Europe, as a study by ETH Zurich and the University of Bern shows.
• Switzerland is particularly affected by its location, as the greatest accumulation is expected on the northern and southern slopes of the Alps.
• For the study, the research team used a new type of climate model for the first time, which simulates the formation and course of a supercell thunderstorm with an accuracy of 2.2 kilometers.

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So-called supercell thunderstorms are among the most dangerous weather conditions that Europe has to offer. These thunderstorms have always existed. They mainly occur in summer, driven by warm and humid air masses.

Climate change is now significantly increasing the risk of supercell thunderstorms in Europe, as a new study shows. Switzerland is particularly affected by this impending increase.

New climate model

With global warming of 3 degrees Celsius, there could be one and a half times as many of these extreme thunderstorms on the northern side of the Alps. South of the Alps, researchers expect a third more supercell thunderstorms, according to the study by the University of Bern and ETH Zurich published in the journal "Science Advances".

For the new study, the researchers used a new type of climate model for the first time, which simulates the formation and course of a supercell thunderstorm with an accuracy of 2.2 kilometers.

Although supercell thunderstorms account for only a fraction of all thunderstorms, they are responsible for the majority of thunderstorm hazards, according to a statement from the two universities.

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Regional differences

Supercell thunderstorms bring with them rotating updrafts, strong gusts of wind, hail and heavy rainfall. They regularly lead to considerable property damage, crop losses, traffic problems and injuries or even fatalities.

Unlike in Germany, the frequency of supercell thunderstorms on the Iberian Peninsula and in the southwest of France tends to decrease according to the simulation. Overall, however, 11 percent more supercell thunderstorms are to be expected across the entire European continent.

Mountains and lakes favor strong thunderstorms

In an interview with SRF, Monika Feldmann, one of the two main authors of the study, says: "The greatest concentration is on the northern and southern slopes of the Alps - in Switzerland, Austria and Italy. Other population centers are located in mountainous regions such as the French Massif Central or the German Black Forest."

Switzerland is particularly affected, explains the researcher: "With the clusters on both sides of the Alps, Switzerland is directly affected - especially Ticino. The mountains and lakes found there can favor strong thunderstorms due to humidity and local wind systems."

Not only the frequency but also the intensity of supercell thunderstorms will increase, "especially in terms of precipitation". The area of precipitation, the amount of rain and the expected hailstone size will all increase, Feldmann explains.