Rain of dollars at Polymarket Suspicious bets again, shortly before Trump announces ceasefire
First there were bets on falling energy prices and rising share prices when Donald Trump announced an imminent truce with Iran on March 22. And even before he announced the ceasefire, there were suspicious bets on Polymarket.
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- Before Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire with Iran, at least 50 accounts placed bets on precisely this event for the first time on Polymarket - and cashed in hundreds of thousands.
- Just a few hours before the ultimatum expired, Trump threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization.
- Calls for regulation: There were similar patterns back in March and also in January when Nicolás Maduro was captured.
Suspicious bets on the prediction platform Polymarket are once again making headlines.
As reported by the AP news agency, new accounts had placed bets that were "highly specific" and "well timed". Specifically, the ceasefire between the USA and Iran was predicted, with these new customers pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The bets on a ceasefire were all the more remarkable because Donald Trump had escalated his rhetoric towards Iran shortly beforehand: a few hours before the US deadline yesterday morning at 2 a.m., the 79-year-old had also threatened Truth Social with the extinction of Iranian civilization.
The ultimatum ran until April 7 at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. At 4.30 pm, the White House surprisingly announced the ceasefire. At least 50 accounts, alias wallets, had previously placed substantial bets on the event - and they were all the first Polymarket trades. The platform is banned in Switzerland.
Betting also took place on the Maduro bet
The people behind the wallets cannot be seen from publicly accessible data, AP writes further. In March, Polymarket had already seen suspicious transactions in connection with the Iran war, when bets were placed on falling oil prices and rising stock market prices ahead of important Trump statements.
According to the AP, however, the problem is even older: there had also been corresponding bets on Polymarket before the capture of Nicolas Maduro on January 3. Even then, the wallets were used by new customers who placed conspicuously well-placed bets.
This caused so much criticism that Polymarket itself announced stricter rules against insider trading on March 23. Bets based on "stolen secret information" are illegal. The whole thing is to be monitored with a "multi-layered control system".
"These markets need regulation"
Polymarket competitor Kalshi has also responded to the headwinds and adapted its rules, reports "CBS News", quoting the provider: "We are introducing new technological guardrails that preemptively exclude politicians, athletes and other relevant individuals from trading in certain political and sports markets."
Such voluntary commitments are not enough for Todd Philips. "These markets need regulation," the Georgia State University economist tells AP. "We can't allow people to trade on inside information and expect it to be okay for other traders to participate in these markets."
Incidentally, in connection with Iran, Polymarket is not only attracting criticism for suspected insider trading. When an American F-15 was shot down in a war zone, the prediction platform allowed bets to be placed on when the missing pilots would be found.
It was only when a Democratic politician publicly complained about this that Polymarket took the bet off the net.
