Transportation Swiss tourism faces weaker summer due to Iran war
Swiss tourism is likely to record fewer overnight stays in summer 2026 for the first time since the pandemic. The main reason for this is weaker demand from long-distance markets as a result of the war in Iran.
21.05.2026, 15:31
SDA
Swiss tourism must prepare for headwinds in the coming summer. BAK Economics expects a decline in overnight stays for the 2026 summer season for the first time since the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Demand will be impacted above all by the consequences of the war in Iran.
24.9 million overnight stays are expected, which is 255,000 or 1.0% fewer than in the previous year. The main reason for the weaker development is the declining demand from the long-distance markets, BAK Economics announced on Thursday. The forecast was prepared on behalf of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco).
The war in Iran is having a particularly negative impact on international travel. At the beginning, airspace closures in particular dampened demand. In the meantime, higher oil and kerosene prices have added to this, making long-distance travel more expensive overall. BAK Economics therefore expects overnight stays in the long-haul markets to fall by 3.7 percent or 246,000 overnight stays.
Fewer guests from Asia due to flight restrictions
Asia will be the hardest hit. India and Southeast Asia in particular suffered from restrictions on air traffic via the major hubs in the Middle East. In addition, many countries in the region are heavily dependent on energy imports from the Persian Gulf.
Two Swiss tourism companies, Jungfraubahn and Titlis-Bahnen, had already published profit warnings for the current financial year in recent weeks. Both justified the warning in particular with the decline in guest numbers from Asia.
By contrast, China is proving comparatively robust, partly due to direct flight connections and less dependence on flight routes via the Middle East. Slight growth is still expected from the USA, albeit at a slower pace.
Two Swiss tourism companies, Jungfraubahn and Titlis-Bahnen, have already published profit warnings for the current financial year in recent weeks. Both cited the decline in guest numbers from Asia due to the conflict in Iran as the main reason for this.
Domestic demand provides support
Domestic and to some extent European demand should have a supporting effect. According to BAK Economics, higher flight prices and uncertainty in international travel could lead to travelers increasingly choosing closer destinations.
Demand from Switzerland is expected to increase by 0.5 percent or 58,000 overnight stays. At the same time, households are under pressure due to higher inflation and weaker consumer spending.
BAK Economics anticipates a slight overall decline of 1.0% or 68,000 overnight stays from European guests. The decline is mainly due to the very strong summer of 2025, which benefited from several major events. Demand from the United Kingdom in particular is likely to be lower, as the one-off effect of the European Women's Football Championship will no longer apply.
Major differences when comparing destinations
At the same time, BAK Economics presented a new analysis tool for tourism destinations. The BAK Tourism Destination Competitiveness Index (TDCI) compares the competitiveness of 240 Swiss and foreign destinations in the Alpine region. In addition, the institute is launching BAK Tourism Intelligence, an AI-supported online tool for destinations.
According to the analysis, Switzerland leads the Alpine region. It has the three best-ranked destinations and nine of the ten best destinations. At the same time, however, a heterogeneous picture emerges: While numerous Swiss destinations have a strong competitive position, there is still a need to catch up in the midfield and among smaller destinations. Among the weaknesses cited by BAK Economics are the insufficient exploitation of revenue potential and the comparatively short length of stay.
