Expert classifies 78 percent of Gaza is destroyed - where to start rebuilding?

The majority of Gaza has been destroyed by Israeli attacks since October 7, 2023. Where do you start rebuilding a country?

Where streets once ran, houses stood close together and people went shopping, today there is only a field of rubble. According to the German analysis company Vertical 52, which has evaluated satellite images, around 78% of all buildings in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed or damaged since October 7, 2023.

It is estimated that more than 55 million tons of rubble need to be removed, according to Jaco Cillers from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in Jerusalem. In the next three years alone, 20 billion dollars will be needed for this. Cillers is urging a quick start to reconstruction.

But how do you rebuild a country after it has been almost completely destroyed?

"In general, reconstruction starts with basic supplies. In other words, with what is most necessary: water, food supplies, sewage, electricity and healthcare," explains Roland Dittli, Palestine Officer at the Swisspeace Peace Foundation. "You can't send a child to school if it's thirsty and hungry."

But even the first steps are complicated: "There are many things in Gaza that work differently than in other places. It's not the first time that entire districts have had to be rebuilt in Gaza."

"You won't be able to remove the rubble"

After Israel's attack on Gaza in 2014 - known as "Operation Protective Edge" - parts of the city were rebuilt using a large proportion of recycled rubble. This was due to the lack of building materials and the closed borders. "It is extremely difficult to export or import anything in Gaza," explains Dittli. The reason for this is the strict control of the area by Israel and Egypt for many years.

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Roland Dittli speaks of a "circular reconstruction", as there is hardly any space in the Gaza Strip: "The millions and millions of tons of rubble cannot be removed because there is simply not enough space in Gaza. And the space it does have is occupied by tent camps. If this space becomes available, food will have to be grown, for example."

Agriculture is also in ruins in the Gaza Strip. Back in August, the children's charity Unicef wrote about the declared famine: "Around 98 percent of the arable land in the area is damaged or inaccessible, which means the almost complete destruction of agriculture and local food production."

Involving the population

"People will be living in the destruction for a long time to come," says Dittli. Reconstruction will probably have to take place "neighborhood by neighborhood" - and above all together with the local population. "I see that as a central aspect," continues the Palestine officer.

By this he means that the people are involved in the sequencing or design. "There is the concept of 'Build Back Better' - not just rebuilding the house, but looking at how to make it better, safer," says Dittli.

However, involving the population has hardly been successful in Gaza, as elsewhere, and too often, according to the criticism, the decision lies with international organizations.

"The World Bank carries out an assessment, the UN Development Program travels there and sets up extensive programs," says Roland Dittli. And he continues: "Then there are the large pool funds: Sweden, for example, says we will contribute several million, and Switzerland also contributes an amount. This money is pooled, and finally the organizations come forward and, in consultation with the respective local government, determine how to proceed and how to organize themselves."

This was also the approach taken in Turkey after the earthquake in February 2023. Germany has also already announced that it will give a "three-digit million sum" for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Together with Egypt, Germany also wants to invite people to a reconstruction conference.

"That's the standard: the big organizations come in and consult with the government," says Dittli. However, the lack of political structures would also make this difficult. "There is no internationally accepted government in Gaza". Israel also continues to control the borders - and therefore what gets in and out.

70 billion dollars for reconstruction

The World Bank estimates the cost of rebuilding the Gaza Strip at 70 billion dollars. Can corruption be avoided? "I would like to say yes," says Dittli. "But you never have absolute certainty."

In Turkey, too, companies with close ties to the government benefited after the earthquake. "To a certain extent, I think this is always the case to some extent," explains Dittli.

Despite everything, Roland Dittli sees opportunities: "Gaza doesn't just have disadvantages, but also advantages: It's small, people know each other and the people are very well educated." But without a political solution, any reconstruction remains fragile. "There really is no certainty that it won't be destroyed again."

There is still no peace in the Gaza Strip, only a fragile ceasefire. "Speed is extremely important now. You can't just breathe a sigh of relief and say: 'now we have peace, now we can sit back'," says Dittli. There is now a partial retreat and the exchange of hostages and prisoners, and this moment must now be used for a peace plan. "The 20-point plan is in the typical style of Donald Trump. Pompous, but with few details and even less involvement of all parties concerned," Dittli continued.

"Hamas will not lay down its arms now"

Several politicians have expressed their concerns about US President Donald Trump's 20-point plan. CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter, for example, emphasizes that the plan can only be successful if Hamas no longer plays a role, both politically and as an armed force.

"Hamas has said that it would be prepared to play no role in a transitional government," explains Roland Dittli. "Where there are already tensions is the question of disarmament. But this aspect of the plan should not be given top priority now. For one thing, there is no one to hand over the weapons to. And then there is the legitimate question of who will ensure a minimum level of peace and order in Gaza today and tomorrow."

Dittli adds: "Hamas will not lay down its weapons now for various reasons. There is no process and no other authority. They also have no interest in looking like a 'defeated power' now. They are prepared to play no role in the management of reconstruction - and that's what we should commit to now."

Switzerland could play a key role

And what role can Switzerland play in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip?

Roland Dittli sees it in a key role. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has long been active in the region and has an office in Gaza with local staff.

In recent years, she has worked particularly in the area of local administration and local service structures. "Switzerland is also known for being very good at mediation," Dittli continues.

Dittli does not dare to say how long it will take to rebuild Gaza. "It really depends on whether a peace plan can be worked out in which all actors have confidence."