First SRG trend poll One stalemate and three clear majorities in the ballot on March 8
If the vote had already taken place in mid-January, a clear majority of voters would have voted in favor of the individual taxation, climate fund and cash initiatives. The outcome of the SRG initiative would have been completely open.
30.01.2026, 06:24
30.01.2026, 06:43
SDA
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- According to an initial SRG poll, a stalemate is emerging on the halving initiative seven weeks before the referendum on March 8.
- The climate fund initiative would have been rejected.
- The federal law on individual taxation was well received.
- In the case of the cash initiative, both the initiative itself and its counter-proposal were well received by respondents.
According to an initial SRG survey, a stalemate is emerging on the halving initiative seven weeks before the referendum. The climate fund initiative would therefore have been rejected. The federal law on individual taxation was well received. In the case of the cash initiative, both the initiative itself and its counter-proposal were well received by respondents.
These were the findings of the first wave of the SRG SSR trend survey on the referendums of 8 March 2026, which was conducted by the research institute gfs.bern. The results, which were published on Friday, represent a snapshot and should not be interpreted as a forecast.
If the SRG initiative had already been put to the vote in mid-January, 52% of those eligible to vote with a firm intention to participate would have definitely or rather voted against, while 46% would have definitely or rather voted in favor.
This corresponds to a stalemate at the beginning of the main campaign phase, with only 2% undecided. Opinions were most advanced in the early phase of the referendum campaign. According to the survey, 78% of those willing to participate indicated a firm intention to vote for or against the proposal.
In favor of the cash initiative
The early opinion on the cash initiative is in favor of the initiative: 65% of those willing to participate would have voted for the proposal on 18 January 2026, 31% against. 4 percent were still undecided.
The direct counter-proposal from the Federal Council and Parliament received similarly broad support: 67% were in favor, 26% against and 7% were still undecided. In the run-off question, a preference for the counter-proposal could be discerned: The formation of opinion on the cash initiative is still not very firm.
Tendency in favor of individual taxation
The early opinion on the Federal Act on Individual Taxation is in favour of the bill: 64% of voters willing to participate would have voted for the bill at the time of the survey, 30% against.
More than three quarters of voters expect the bill to be adopted. At 65%, a majority of those willing to participate expressed firm opinions for or against the bill. Six percent are still undecided.
Climate fund initiative with fewer chances
If the climate fund initiative had been put to the vote on January 18, 2026, a relative majority of 60% of voters would have definitely or rather voted against it. 35% would have voted definitely or somewhat in favor and 5% expressed no opinion. Opinion on the climate fund initiative was already moderately stable at an early stage. According to the survey, 64% of those willing to participate expressed a clear intention to vote.
At 47%, the turnout so far is close to the long-term average. The survey was conducted between 12 January and 26 January 2026 among 15,371 eligible voters. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.
Another survey with a similar picture
An initial poll conducted by "20 Minuten" and Tamedia came to similar conclusions. According to this, the climate fund initiative has no chance. In contrast, there is clear support for individual taxation as well as for the cash initiative and the counter-proposal to it. A narrow majority is in favor of the halving initiative.
