Prediction market surprised Pfister's chances of winning the Federal Council are increasing rapidly - Ritter under pressure
Who will be elected to replace Viola Amherd in the Federal Council? According to one prediction market, the favorite Markus Ritter is in the lead - but the supposed outsider Martin Pfister is catching up fast.
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- Markus Ritter is considered the favorite for the Federal Council election on 12 March, while his rival Martin Pfister is still relatively unknown nationally.
- In the "50plus1" prediction market, however, a close race is emerging: According to this, Martin Pfister's chances have risen significantly in recent days.
- Ritter is likely to benefit from votes from the conservative camp. In the left-green camp, on the other hand, Martin Pfister is likely to enjoy more sympathy.
Who will be elected to the Federal Council on March 12? This question is currently the focus of debate in Swiss politics. With Markus Ritter and Martin Pfister, the centrists have two men to choose from.
Markus Ritter is the favorite going into the race. The St. Gallen National Councillor and President of the Farmers' Association is regarded as one of the most influential members of parliament and has excellent connections in the Federal Parliament. Martin Pfister, Director of Health in Zug and former leader of the Center Party in the cantonal parliament, is hardly known at national level.
Whoever is elected will in all likelihood inherit not only the seat in the national government from Viola Amherd, but also the Federal Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS). As an officer in the Swiss army, Martin Pfister is well qualified for the job. He also has a great deal of executive experience as a member of the cantonal government.
Pfister's major handicap: the Federal Council is elected by Parliament. And hardly anyone in parliament knows him yet. If he wants to stand a chance, he will have to mount a professional lobbying campaign in Bern.
Trading in election shares
But what exactly are the chances of the two candidates? The "50plus1" prediction market by political scientists Maxime Walder (University of Geneva) and Oliver Strijbis (Franklin University Switzerland) looks at this question. And lo and behold, the outsider Martin Pfister has made up a lot of ground in recent days.
Prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular as a method for forecasting elections. This is a type of election exchange that works on the principle of a financial exchange. Instead of company shares, shares in future events are traded - in this case the replacement election of Viola Amherd.
Unlike on Wall Street, there is no money involved, but rather token francs. Most of the participants are former or current political science students. With many people with above-average knowledge taking part, the market combines aspects of expert knowledge with swarm intelligence.
Ritter's leadership is shaky
On February 3, when the registration deadline for the center ended and the two men were the only candidates, the probability that Markus Ritter would be elected was still 60% on "50plus1". Martin Pfister was well behind at around 25 percent. The remaining percentage points were split between various other people.
Since his first media conference last Thursday, the prediction market participants see the possibility of Pfister becoming a member of the Federal Council as much more realistic. His rating has risen continuously. His chances are currently around 44%. Markus Ritter is only just in the lead with around 47%.
Does Ritter have to worry about his role as favorite? If he is overtaken by Pfister in the prediction market, he could be in for a rude awakening. Extensive scientific literature proves that prediction markets are among the most effective methods for forecasting political events. And "50plus1" has proven to be well calibrated in the five Federal Council elections for which predictions have been made so far.
The threat of empty votes
The fact that Martin Pfister has any chance at all as a non-parliamentarian is mainly due to the hard lobbying work that Ritter has done for farmers in recent years. Anyone who exposes themselves in this way also creates many opponents. Pfister is therefore likely to meet with more sympathy, especially in the left-green camp.
However, both Ritter and Pfister belong to the center-right spectrum. There is therefore also the threat of empty votes from the left due to dissatisfaction with the center ticket. This scenario would probably suit Markus Ritter, especially as he is hoping for significantly more votes from the centre-right than his competitor. Either way, it remains exciting - and the supposed outsider is far from beaten.
