Starting position ahead of the Federal Council election Ritter under pressure - will Pfister be the favorite today?
A month ago, the starting position seemed clear: Markus Ritter is the favorite in the Federal Council race, Martin Pfister the outsider. According to a prediction market, however, the wind has changed.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Markus Ritter and Martin Pfister want to become Federal Councillors. At the beginning, the latter's chances were considered slim.
- The "50plus1" prediction market now paints a different picture.
- According to this, Martin Pfister has clearly overtaken his rival in the last few days.
Markus Ritter or Martin Pfister - who will be elected to replace Viola Amherd in the Federal Council? The United Federal Assembly will decide on Wednesday.
According to most media reports, Markus Ritter is still the favorite to win the race. The St. Gallen National Councillor and long-standing President of the Farmers' Union is regarded as one of the most influential members of parliament, has excellent connections in Bern and is repeatedly described by the press as the "most powerful man in the federal parliament".
Martin Pfister, Zug's Director of Health and former parliamentary group leader in the cantonal parliament, is hardly known at national level. The fact that he has not been under the Federal Palace dome until recently is seen as a major handicap.
However, Pfister has used the last few weeks to make himself known in Bern. "I have met many members of the Council and given them the opportunity to discuss political issues with me and check out my personality," he tells blue News. He is confident that he has a real chance of being elected on Wednesday.
Betting on the outcome of the election
A glance at the "50plus1" prediction market reveals that Pfister's optimism is not unfounded. In recent weeks, the Zug native has not only caught up with but overtaken his favored competitor in terms of election chances.
Prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular as a method of forecasting elections. This is a type of election exchange that works on the principle of a financial exchange. Instead of company shares, shares in future events are traded - in this case the election of Viola Amherd.
Unlike on Wall Street, there is no money involved in "50plus1", the prediction market run by political scientists Maxime Walder (University of Geneva) and Oliver Strijbis (Franklin University Switzerland). Most of the participants are former or current students of political science. By involving many people with above-average knowledge, the market combines aspects of expert knowledge with swarm intelligence.
Pfister overtakes Ritter
On February 3, when the registration deadline for the center ended and the two men were the only candidates, the probability that Markus Ritter would be elected was still at 60 percent on "50plus1". Martin Pfister was well behind at around 25 percent. The remaining percentage points were split between various other people.
Pfister's score improved steadily over the following weeks. Before the start of the hearings, Ritter and Pfister were tied at 47%. And in the final spurt, the participants apparently see Pfister with a clear advantage: according to the current figures (as of March 9), Pfister's chances are 67%, while Ritter's are only 30%.
From outsider to favorite?
So the former outsider is the new favorite? According to "50plus1", Markus Ritter is in for a rude awakening. Extensive scientific literature proves that prediction markets are among the most effective methods for forecasting political events. And "50plus1" has proven to be well calibrated in the five Federal Council elections for which predictions have been made so far.
However, at the end of the day, Federal Councillors are still elected by parliament - not by political scientists. And just like stock market predictions, prediction markets do not always predict the correct scenario. So it remains exciting.
