Wrong forecast Zurich closes kindergartens because the birth rate is falling

The city of Zurich has invested massively in school buildings to counter the lack of space for children. However, forecasts now show a decline in the number of children, which is causing the plans to falter.

The lack of school space has been an ongoing issue in Zurich for years. There is hardly a municipal school without mobile pavilions next to it. Large birth cohorts and new families moving in have driven up demand.

And now this: there is too much space in the kindergartens, the number of classes is decreasing and premises are being closed, writes the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper.

The reason for this is a marked decline in the number of births, which has overturned previous forecasts.

18 kindergartens closed since 2020

Since 2020, the city of Zurich has closed a total of 18 kindergartens. The abrupt drop in births in 2022 has accelerated a trend that has been in place since 2018. Although the city's population continues to grow, the number of young children is decreasing.

Gabriela Rothenfluh, President of the Waidberg school district, tells the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper how seven years ago she hardly knew where to find the school space for all the children who needed a place. Now, however, she has had to close kindergartens and it is foreseeable that further premises for the youngest pupils on Waidberg will no longer be needed.

The forecasts for the 2027/28 school year show that the city is expecting 1054 fewer kindergarten children and 35 fewer classes than it had forecast in 2020. The forecast determines how many classrooms the city will make available.

Overall, the figures are 3077 children and 139 classes lower than expected. Despite the influx of new residents into the city and the rising population, the number of young children remains in decline.

In some neighborhoods, the number of pupils continues to rise

Jacqueline Peter, President of the Uto school district, describes school space planning as dynamic, as both demographic change and neighborhood characteristics play a role.

In Peter's Uto school district, which comprises districts 2 and 3, kindergartens had to be closed because major construction projects were delayed. In Leimbach and Wollishofen, on the other hand, the number of children is expected to rise due to construction activity, while a decline is forecast in Wiedikon and Enge.

These trends call school building projects into question. After all, fewer pupils in kindergarten means fewer pupils in school two years later.

This sheds a new light, for example, on the referendum on the expansion of the Entlisberg school complex in Wollishofen. School projects are almost always successful at the Zurich ballot box, with only the costs sometimes giving cause for concern. Since 2020, the electorate has approved around 900 million francs for new school buildings.

However, whether the school extension in Wollishofen costing CHF 54 million is necessary in view of the forecasts is likely to be debated. Peter is convinced that the expansion is nevertheless necessary.

The FDP takes a different view. It has decided to say no to the Entlisberg school project because the school space problem has lost its urgency.

The city reacts

Head of Finance Daniel Leupi suggests that the school space investments could be reassessed. Some school building projects have already been stopped or postponed, such as the construction of the new Schlachthof school building in the Letzi school district or the Kempfareal school building project in the Glattal school district.

Head of Schools Filippo Leutenegger emphasizes that Zurich is in a good situation, as the city has built many so-called Züri-Modular pavilions in recent years, which can be dismantled or postponed if necessary. The city can also react flexibly to kindergartens by terminating rental contracts for classrooms. Despite the closures, the city has not dismissed any teachers to date. The shortage of teachers at primary and secondary level continues.

The City of Zurich is aware of the decline in the birth rate and the falling demand for classrooms in individual school districts. In its regularly updated space requirements strategy for 2024, it assumes only a slight increase in the number of schoolchildren. This is expected to increase by 1.3 percent by 2034. The time of the school space emergency seems to be over for the time being.

The editor wrote this article with the help of AI.