Iran apparently blocking important sea route These 50 kilometers could now shake the global economy
Following the attacks on Iran by the USA and Israel, there are increasing indications that Tehran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the most important bottlenecks in global energy trade. The consequences could be felt worldwide - including at Swiss petrol stations.
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- Around 20 percent of the global oil trade and up to 20 percent of global LNG exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- A blockade would stop tankers and insurers could refuse passage.
- A prolonged outage would have a direct impact on oil, gas and fuel prices worldwide.
In the midst of the military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran, a 50-kilometre-wide sea area is becoming the focus of global politics. The Strait of Hormuz is considered the most sensitive bottleneck in global energy trade. Should Tehran actually block the passage or even pose a credible threat, this could have economic consequences far beyond the region.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so crucial?
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and thus with the open sea. At its narrowest point, it is only around 50 kilometers wide. On average, around 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through there every day - almost a fifth of global consumption. In addition, 15 to 20 percent of the global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through this strait, mainly from Qatar.
For countries such as Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, it is the only sea link to the global market. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also transport large parts of their energy exports via this route.
What would a blockade mean in concrete terms?
If Iran were to actually block the passage - for example with mines, threats against tankers or military maneuvers - shipping companies and insurers could refuse passage. Even the credible threat of attacks could be enough to bring shipping traffic to a de facto standstill.
Although there are alternative pipelines through Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, these only cover a fraction of the usual export volumes. A significant part of the global energy supply would be interrupted in the short term.
How much would prices rise?
Oil and gas markets react very sensitively to geopolitical risks. Even the prospect of a blockade can cause wholesale prices for crude oil and gas to rise significantly. This would have an immediate impact on heating oil prices, diesel and petrol.
However, the oil market is currently comparatively well supplied. Major producers such as the USA, Saudi Arabia and Brazil could increase their production. Nevertheless, the longer a disruption lasts, the more prices will rise.
Would this harm Iran itself?
Yes, Iran itself exports oil via the Gulf ports and would be affected economically. In addition, important trading partners - above all China - would suffer from a blockade. Around 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the strait goes to Asian markets.
A complete blockade would therefore not only be a means of exerting pressure on the West, but also a risky step for Tehran's own economy.
What role do the Revolutionary Guards play?
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards regularly operate in the Persian Gulf with speedboats and naval units. In the past, foreign tankers have been seized several times. There were also incidents in 2019 and 2024 in which ships were temporarily seized.
Historically, the situation is reminiscent of the so-called "tanker war" during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when hundreds of ships were attacked in the Gulf.
