Climate researchers warn This is how close the Amazon rainforest is to the tipping point - what matters now
Climate researchers warn that the Amazon is close to a tipping point. This threatens a transformation that poses a massive threat to the global climate, biodiversity and food supply.
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- 18 percent of the Amazon has already been destroyed. Between 20 and 25 percent is at risk of irreversible conversion to savannah.
- The rainforest is cooling less. Dry periods are getting longer, the risk of fire is increasing.
- Without the Amazon, up to 40 percent of the rainfall in South America's most important agricultural regions will be lost.
- Organized environmental crime is one of the greatest threats to forest protection today.
- Only large-scale reforestation and an end to monocultures can prevent the worst from happening.
The Amazon rainforest is often described as the "green lung" of the earth. This lung is in a historic crisis. Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre, one of the world's leading experts on tropical ecosystems, warns in the Guardian:"We are dangerously close to the tipping point."
If this is reached, the rainforest will turn into a dry, fire-prone savannah landscape. With catastrophic consequences for the climate, biodiversity and humanity.
The warnings are not new, yet they often go unheeded. For years, scientists have been warning of an ecological tipping point in the Amazon. Although the data is clear, the public often reacts with repression.
Repression instead of responsibility
The problem seems too big, it is too unclear what effect our own actions can have. Some console themselves with the thought that climate fluctuations have always been part of the earth's history.
They overlook the fact that today's warming is man-made and faster than ever before. Others rely on technical solutions to save the planet at the last minute.
The danger is no longer abstract. It is measurable, visible and tangible. And it is progressing faster than global politics can react. Today, 18 percent of the Amazon has already been destroyed.
Dry times
Global warming is at 1.5 degrees. At 20 to 25 percent deforestation or 2 degrees global warming, the system could collapse. According to current climate models, this scenario could become reality by 2050 at the latest.
"What we are seeing is a dramatic lengthening of the dry seasons," explains Nobre. Particularly affected are those regions where large areas have been cleared for meat production through livestock farming and soybean cultivation, especially in the southern Amazon basin. It already rains 20 percent less there today than it did 40 years ago.
Where there are parched pastures today, the tipping point is already in sight, or possibly already passed. Instead of four months, the dry season there already lasts up to five months. And soon it could be six. That would be the point at which the forest can no longer sustain itself.
The rainforest as air conditioning
Why is this so dangerous? Nobre explains that the Amazon works like a huge, natural air conditioning system. Its trees draw water from the ground and send it into the air through their leaves. This process is called transpiration.
This creates the "flying rivers", gigantic streams of water vapor that reach as far as southern agricultural states such as Paraná or Argentina.
According to a study by the University of São Paulo, these water flows account for up to 50 percent of the rainfall in southern Brazil's most important growing regions. If this effect disappears, rainfall there will fall by up to 40 percent, and harvests will fall at the same rate.
Organized destruction
But the problems are not only of a climatic nature. A growing danger comes from a completely different corner: organized crime. According to Nobre, over 98% of the 150,000 forest fires registered in 2024 were not caused by lightning strikes, but by human activity.
"Illegal logging, land theft, gold mining, drug trafficking - they are all connected," he says. The illegal business of destroying the Amazon is now a billion-dollar market that governments can hardly compete with.
The good news: according to Nobre, the solutions lie in the "bio-ecological turnaround". This means large-scale reforestation, ending monocultures, protecting indigenous areas and establishing a sustainable bioeconomy.
Solutions, but little time
Brazil has shown in the past that it is possible. Under President Lula, deforestation once fell from 27,000 to 4,600 km². Since his return to office, there are signs of a renewed decline.
But the window of opportunity is closing. Carlos Nobre looks at the development with growing concern. Just 35 years ago, he was optimistic that the world had enough time to get deforestation and climate change under control.
But instead of taking action, emissions continued to rise. Most recently to a record high. Today, Nobre speaks of a real climate emergency. "We can no longer wait for future generations," he warns. "If we don't act now, we will not only lose the Amazon, but the climatic balance of our planet."
