Trump has a 166 billion dollar problem - and is making it bigger and bigger

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• The Supreme Court declared Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal.
• Theoretically, the US would have to pay back tens of billions of dollars to affected importers.
• The government is trying to slow down the repayments legally, bureaucratically and politically.

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If you want to understand the current situation, it can probably be summarized in a single sentence for the majority of those affected: The money is gone.

Between April 2025 and February 2026, the US customs authority CBP collected around 166 billion dollars in punitive tariffs under the emergency law IEEPA - a sum that flowed into the regular federal budget and has long since been planned.

When the Supreme Court declared these tariffs unlawful in February by a vote of 6:3, this did not create an abstract legal problem, but a concrete fiscal one: the US government must now refund money to importers that it should never have collected.

So far, the government says it has paid back around 21 billion dollars. A further 64 billion dollars are being "reviewed for validity". That sounds like progress - but it is window dressing.

According to the judge in charge, an online portal of the CBP is currently processing repayment claims amounting to at least 85 billion dollars - the big question is whether the government really wants to see this process through to the end.

Trump's triple blockade

The answer is a clear no - at least for the time being. And on three different levels.

The Trump administration has formally appealed Judge Richard Eaton's order declaring all 330,000 importers who paid IEEPA duties eligible for refunds.

The Department of Justice argues that only those companies that actively filed a complaint are eligible. "CBP has no authority to refund money without a court order," the Department of Justice wrote in a court brief.

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This is legally piquant: on the one hand, the government is questioning the authority of the judge, while at the same time invoking a court order as a prerequisite for refunds.

Judge Eaton, in an unusual move, publicly described the Justice Department's submissions as "colorful" and warned that the appeal could jeopardize the entire current portal system for refunds.

The CBP portal only accepts so-called "unliquidated entries" - customs entries that have not yet been finalized. For "liquidated" entries that have already been settled - which corresponds to around half of the 166 billion dollars - each importer must submit a separate claim.

This is tedious for large corporations and virtually impossible for small companies.

Trump himself has openly put pressure on companies not to reclaim money to which they are rightfully entitled. "Brilliant if they don't," Trump told CNBC. "If they don't, then they know me very well. I'll keep them in mind."

These statements caused a stir in Washington. Lobbyists and business associations report that some importers initially hesitated to demand their money back - for fear of retaliation from the President.

The president's threat seems to have worked, at least on the surface.

What drives Trump - and what that says about him

There is a simple explanation for Trump's behavior: The Supreme Court ruling was a public defeat.

Tariffs were the centerpiece of his economic policy, the instrument with which he supposedly wanted to make America great again. The fact that the Supreme Court banned these tariffs is likely to have hit him hard.

Trump himself publicly complained that the ruling was a "small defeat" and complained on Truth Social that the ruling was missing a single sentence: "Any money paid to the US does not have to be repaid."

In other words: Trump does not accept the ruling in principle - and is acting accordingly.

There is also a strategic aspect. Since the IEEPA ruling, the government has been looking for a replacement at record speed. On the same day, Trump imposed a blanket 10 percent levy on almost all imports, based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

These duties were also declared unlawful by a commercial court in May - however, an appeals court temporarily suspended the ruling on May 12, which is why the duties will continue to be levied for the time being.

At the same time, extensive Section 301 investigations have been underway since March, which are to serve as the basis for the next wave of tariffs - explicitly naming Switzerland, the EU, Japan, South Korea and dozens of other countries.

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Trump's strategy is therefore simple: delay refunds for as long as possible - and at the same time create a new legal basis for tariffs that the court cannot overturn.

A vacuum is created - and the real problem remains

The next step is for an appeals court in the US to rule on Trump's challenge to Judge Eaton's universal order. As explained above, the latter had ruled that Those who paid tariffs will get their money back, no ifs, ands or buts.

The Trump administration takes a different view and only wants to compensate those who forced the state to do so by legal means. An appeals court must now clarify who is right. If the government wins, the current online portal is likely to freeze - and with it billions of refund claims that have already been submitted.

In the medium term, the situation is complex: the blanket 10 percent levy imposed by Trump expires in July. And the newly launched investigations as the basis for new tariffs will take months.

In between, there is a vacuum that the government may try to bridge with tariffs that only affect specific sectors. This could also affect Swiss companies.

However, the basic problem remains the same: as long as Trump sees the refund as a personal defeat and at the same time tries to establish a new customs framework, he has no interest in a quick solution.

With material from DPA