"Forwards or backwards?" What the fateful election in Poland means for Europe
Right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki (left) faces liberal Rafal Trzaskowski in the run-off election for the presidency in Poland. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Rafal Trzaskowski has his voters mainly in the big cities. (Current photo)
Image: dpa
The right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki has many supporters, especially in the countryside. (Current photo)
Image: dpa
Before the run-off election, both candidates called for demonstrations in Warsaw. (archive photo)
Image: dpa
The Polish army has more soldiers than the German armed forces. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The skyline of the Polish capital Warsaw - Poland has experienced an enormous economic upswing over the past 20 years. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki (left) faces liberal Rafal Trzaskowski in the run-off election for the presidency in Poland. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Rafal Trzaskowski has his voters mainly in the big cities. (Current photo)
Image: dpa
The right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki has many supporters, especially in the countryside. (Current photo)
Image: dpa
Before the run-off election, both candidates called for demonstrations in Warsaw. (archive photo)
Image: dpa
The Polish army has more soldiers than the German armed forces. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The skyline of the Polish capital Warsaw - Poland has experienced an enormous economic upswing over the past 20 years. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
The Poles are electing a successor to Andrzej Duda. The race between the liberal Trzaskowski and the right-wing conservative Nawrocki will be close. The outcome of the election has implications for the whole of Europe.
01.06.2025, 18:08
dpa
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- In the run-off election for president in Poland, voters had to decide between a pro-European and a right-wing nationalist on Sunday.
- Liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and his right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki cast their votes in Warsaw.
- The latest polls before the vote suggest an election thriller.
The run-off election for the presidency in Poland is expected to see a lively turnout. By midday, almost a quarter of eligible voters (24.83 percent) had cast their votes, according to the electoral commission. The last polls before the vote suggest an election thriller. The liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and the right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki are tied.
The visions that the two have for their country are diametrically opposed. A deeply divided Poland is facing a directional election. It will significantly determine the course of the EU and NATO member state - with consequences for Germany and Europe.
"Forwards or backwards?" was the headline in the latest issue of Polityka magazine - and it reveals the dilemma facing Germany's eastern neighbor. If Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, wins the race, then the pro-European head of government Donald Tusk will have a party colleague and strong ally in the presidential palace who will support him in his reform course.
If the independent historian Nawrocki wins, Tusk will be in a bad position. This is because Nawrocki is supported by the right-wing conservative PiS, Poland's largest opposition party. Nawrocki could use his right of veto to block bills and make it practically impossible for Tusk to govern. The result could be an unstable Poland and early elections - and the possible return of the PiS to power.
Economic engine Poland
Poland has been a member of the EU since 2004. Over the past two decades, the country with its 37.5 million inhabitants has enjoyed steady economic growth - with the exception of a small dip as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Since 2015, the average income has more than doubled and currently stands at the equivalent of CHF 1973.
A network of freeways, also subsidized with EU funds, runs through the country. You will look in vain for dead spots, and Polish railroad trains usually run on time. In many places, smart homes with double garages and solar panels show that prosperity has also arrived in the countryside. And everywhere people pay cashless with Blik, the country's own mobile payment system.
Increased military importance due to the war in Ukraine
Russia's war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine has enhanced Poland's role as a NATO partner. The country is an important logistical hub for the West's military aid to Kiev.
Poland itself also feels threatened by Russia and is massively arming itself. This year, it plans to spend 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. Its armed forces number 206,000 soldiers - significantly more than the German armed forces.
Liberal city dwellers, conservative country dwellers
However, ideas about how Poland should position itself with its growing importance vary greatly within the population. The first round of elections has shown this: The liberal pro-European Trzaskowski has his voters predominantly in the cities. The 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw campaigns for the rights of the LGBT community, speaks five foreign languages and is well connected internationally from his time as deputy foreign minister.
However, the number of people in the country who feel that their interests are falling by the wayside due to the rapid changes in society is growing. Many supporters of Karol Nawrocki say they want "normality". They mean a return to a traditional, Catholic family image. And they want less Europe, less migration and more nationhood.
Fears of losing sovereignty
42-year-old Nawrocki is a man with a difficult past. He was an amateur boxer and bouncer in his youth, has contacts in the red-light district from this time and was involved in a mass brawl involving football hooligans in 2009. None of this necessarily speaks of normality.
But Nawrocki is playing on people's fears. The EU wants to turn Poland into a "county with a population of Polish origin" and take away the country's sovereignty, he warns during the election campaign. "Why should we hand over command of the Polish armed forces to Brussels when Ursula von der Leyen didn't even have the Bundeswehr under control?" The audience likes this - and no one questions whether such plans even exist.
Right-wing extremists benefit from disenchantment with politics
Another factor in this election is disenchantment with politics. Many people are simply fed up with the fact that the battle between 68-year-old Donald Tusk and 75-year-old Jaroslaw Kaczynski has dominated their country's politics for more than 20 years. This explains why more than 21 percent of voters voted for two far-right candidates in the first round of elections, said Agnieszka Lada-Konefal from the German Poland Institute. "That was the red card for these two gentlemen. Young voters in particular no longer see themselves there."
The right-wing extremist Slawomir Mentzen and the openly anti-Semitic Grzegoz Braun were eliminated in the first round of voting. Many of their supporters are protest voters whose behavior in the run-off is difficult to predict. However, it is assumed that the majority of them will vote for Nawrocki.