Health Will a third of all young people be overweight in 25 years' time?
If you are too fat as a child, you often stay that way as an adult: if current trends continue, an analysis suggests that around a third of children and young adults worldwide could be overweight or obese in 25 years' time.
04.03.2025, 03:28
SDA
The researchers expect the highest proportion of obese people among five to 24-year-olds in the Arab world (North Africa and the Middle East), while 20 to 23 percent of young people in Germany could be affected. This will be accompanied by more heart, respiratory and fertility problems, diabetes, cancer and mental health problems, the team warns.
The authors of the study generally cite changes in media use and the shift towards Western diets as the cause of this development. Without appropriate political measures and reforms, there could be 3.8 billion adults and 746 million children and adolescents who are overweight or obese by 2050.
Certain regions are particularly affected
According to the forecast, one in three young people with obesity (130 million) will be living in one of two regions in 25 years' time: North Africa/Middle East or Latin America/Caribbean. The immense increase will have health, economic and social consequences, warns the research team led by Jessica Kerr from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Melbourne (Australia).
New therapies such as weight loss injections are not specifically mentioned in the study. However, it is based on data from 1990 to 2021, when these therapies did not yet play a major role, especially not in children - so an effect could become clear in the future. There is also no mention of the fact that the coronavirus pandemic and the associated restrictions - for example on sports activities - have led to an increase in the proportion of overweight people in many countries. In many cases, it is still unclear whether this has only exacerbated the problem temporarily or permanently. Both factors could have a major influence on the development of the figures in the coming decades.
Global obesity rate doubled
The obesity crisis has become increasingly apparent in recent years. According to calculations by Kerr's team, the rates of overweight and obesity in adults aged 25 and over and children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 have more than doubled globally in the last three decades (1990 to 2021). A further significant increase is expected, especially in obesity: By 2050, the total number of obese children and adolescents could rise from around 174 million to around 360 million.
Kerr's group used data from the "Global Burden of Disease" (GBD) project for the study presented in the specialist journal "The Lancet". In 18 to 24-year-olds, anyone with a BMI of 25 to under 30 is considered overweight, and anyone with a BMI of 30 or more is considered obese. Other thresholds apply to children and adolescents according to the criteria of the International Obesity Task Force.
More young people not just overweight, but obese
For 2050, the scientists calculated that the proportion of obese people among male children aged between 5 and 14 could be even higher than the proportion of overweight people on a global average. In high-income countries, including Germany, they expect roughly equal proportions of overweight and obese people in this age group.
The results point to "monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action", according to Kerr. At least some countries have already taken action: The ban on sugary drinks in schools and changes to school meals and physical education are cited as examples.
It won't work without government measures
"The scale of the epidemic is so great that solutions must be found in the form of public health measures," emphasizes Thorkild Sørensen from the University of Copenhagen, who was not involved in the study himself, in a commentary in "The Lancet". It is still unclear which measures will be both feasible and effective.
