Donald Trump's Troubles on His 80th Birthday

What’s going on with Donald Trump? In the weeks leading up to his 80th birthday, the US president has been acting conspicuously—conspicuously quiet. During his second term, the White House schedule has so far been packed with public appearances where he speaks at length to cameras and microphones and digresses into monologues. But right now, a lot is happening behind closed doors at the White House.

Things aren’t going well for the U.S. president: the mountain of problems is growing. And yet today’s birthday was supposed to be a celebration of superlatives for him, complete with cage fights in front of the White House. Is Trump losing his grip on power?

“No new wars” was Trump’s motto

Since the beginning of his term about a year and a half ago, the Republican has wanted to go down in history as a president of peace. He already saw himself being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. “No new wars” was a central slogan of his 2024 campaign, with which he rallied supporters of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement.

Now Trump speaks differently. He recently denied having promised not to spark new conflicts outside the U.S. “Peace through strength” is the motto at the Pentagon, which Trump had renamed the “Department of War.” Trump’s course appears erratic in many respects.

The U.S. president now seems to be struggling with the U.S.’s role as a mediator in the war in Ukraine. During the campaign, he had emphasized that he could end the carnage within a day. But the war in Ukraine has long since ceased to be the focus in the Oval Office. For Trump is in the midst of a war of his own.

Is the Iran deal coming?

Trump has so far failed to break the deadlock in the Iran conflict. On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks. Since then, the Republican has highlighted the military successes, but Iran’s strategic blocking of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has put him in a tight spot. He even asked NATO allies for help in securing the strait, which is vital for oil trade—but his pleas did not yield the desired results.

The U.S. government also appeared inconsistent in explaining the war’s objectives. This led to confusion in the public eye. It seemed as though the Trump administration was getting deeper and deeper into a thorny thicket. Media reports also point to friction between the war partners Israel and the U.S. Trump called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exercise restraint, yet Israel’s attacks continued, particularly on the second front in Lebanon. The “Washington Post” writes of a rupture in what had previously been a solid alliance.

According to US government statements, the war with Iran was initially expected to last four to six weeks. It has now been nearly four months. Trump repeatedly fueled hopes that he could soon reach an agreement with Iran. So far, no such agreement has materialized.

However, just in time for his milestone birthday, there are new hopes in this regard. According to consistent reports from both sides as well as the mediator, Pakistan, the U.S. and Iran are on the verge of an agreement to end the war. The “deal” may be finalized on the sidelines of this week’s G7 summit in Evian (F)—or, at the very least, in nearby Geneva.

Growing open resistance

Nevertheless, all of this is dangerous for Trump: His approval ratings have been low for quite some time. Many Americans are war-weary, while the U.S. government continues to invoke a warrior ethos.

But perhaps the greatest danger currently lurking for Trump isn’t abroad at all, but at home. And that has to do with the U.S. Congress in Washington: Even from within his own ranks, the Republican is facing increasing pressure to quickly end the war with Iran.

And not just regarding this conflict. Recently, the House of Representatives passed a package introduced by Democrats—with significant Republican support—on aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, thereby also clearly reaffirming its commitment to the NATO alliance.

This could be an attempt—should the bill be sent to Trump for his signature in the Oval Office—to force the president to make a commitment to the defense alliance following his rebuke of NATO over what he views as insufficient aid in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump recently had to backtrack significantly on the idea of a government fund for alleged victims of the justice system. Critics suspected this was a reward scheme for Trump loyalists, such as the attackers who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent the inauguration of Democrat Joe Biden.

The resentment was so great, even among Republicans, that Trump apparently saw no other option but to scrap the fund.

Weeks ago, a reporter at the White House asked Trump if he was losing control of the Senate. His answer: “I don’t know.”

Will Republicans lose their slim majority?

The clock is ticking for Trump. On November 3, America will vote on numerous seats in the U.S. Congress. Trump’s Republicans could lose their majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The “Washington Post” emphasizes that the losses could be greater if the war with Iran drags on and causes gas prices to rise further. If Trump can no longer rely on his party’s majorities in Congress, it will become increasingly difficult for him to push through his policies.