Which third-placed teams will progress to the round of 16? It looks good for Hungary, less so for Croatia. England will have to win big to keep Modrić and Co. in the running.
Croatia will have to wait - and hope for an English goalfest at the European Championship. After Italy's very late equalizer, Luka Modrić's World Cup bronze medallists only finished third in Group B. Two points and a goal difference of 3:6 might not be enough to reach the round of 16 after all.
This is the current table of the third-placed teams in the group:
The four best third-placed teams in the group qualify for the round of 16.
Hoping for England, Portugal and Turkey
With this result, Croatia are currently only in fifth place out of six. That's not good enough. Group D, E and A are out of reach because the third-placed teams in each group already have three points. It is therefore only possible for Croatia to leave the third-placed teams from Groups C and F behind.
For this to happen, the following must occur:
In Group C
- England must win by at least three goals to one against Slovenia. If Slovenia score two goals, the Three Lions would need a four-goal lead.
- Denmark must win against Serbia. If this does not happen, Serbia must win by at least three goals against the Danes. If Denmark scores two goals, the Serbs would need a four-goal lead. If Denmark and Serbia draw, Croatia will be out for sure.
In Group F
- Portugal must beat Georgia.
- Turkey must defeat the Czech Republic.
Croatia's chances of progressing have therefore dwindled to a minimum.
Criteria for the best third-placed teams
- more points
- better goal difference
- more goals scored
- more wins
- fewer points in the fair play ranking (red and yellow-red cards = 3 points, single yellow card without yellow-red = 1 point)
- position in the UEFA ranking list of qualifying matches
This mode has been used since Euro 2016. Since then, three points and a goal difference of at least -1 have always been enough to progress.
dpa
