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According to a German economist’s model, Virgil van Dijk is set to lead the Netherlands to its first-ever World Cup title.
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Using his model, a German economist has been spot-on with his World Cup predictions since 2014—this time, the Netherlands is set to take the title. The bookmakers see a different team at the top.
He was absolutely right for the last three World Cups: German economist Joachim Klement. After Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022, the Netherlands is set to lift the World Cup trophy for the first time in 2026.
Klement uses a model that combines factors such as FIFA rankings, population size, economic development, and other historical data.
Although the Netherlands has been among the world’s elite for decades, it has never won a World Cup final. The Oranje have reached the final three times so far (in 1974 against Germany, in 1978 against Argentina, and in 2010 against Spain).
According to the model, the title is out of reach for Switzerland. Their run is expected to end in the round of 16 against Portugal—just as it did four years ago in Qatar.
Is the 2026 World Cup the Dutch national team’s tournament?
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Anyone looking to bet on the next World Cup champion is currently getting a pretty clear picture from the bookmakers: Spain tops most odds lists. France, England, Brazil, and Argentina follow.
The reason is obvious: Spain’s golden generation is likely to take their game up another notch at this year’s World Cup following their 2024 European Championship title. The team, led by stars Gavi and Lamine Yamal, is young and technically outstanding.
Switzerland is considered an underdog by the bookmakers.
The Spanish magicians Lamine Yamal and Gavi aim to make a splash.
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The supercomputer is also betting on Spain. Sports data provider Opta ran the World Cup through its simulations ten thousand times and found Spain to be the most frequent winner. Argentina, France, and England followed behind.
The Switzerland Factor: In the simulations, the Swiss national team is regularly seen as a team that can survive the group stage and cause some surprises. However, the statistical probability isn’t enough for the title so far.
Will Lionel Messi kiss the World Cup trophy in 2026 as well as in 2022?
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No World Cup is complete without animal prophets. The octopus Paul became famous for correctly predicting all of Germany’s matches as well as the final at the 2010 World Cup, thereby achieving cult status worldwide. Although Paul is no longer alive, new oracles emerge before every major tournament—from octopuses to camels to cats.
The animals at the Guadalajara Zoo are also “predicting” the World Cup—but let’s take it step by step. While the elephants are predicting an opening-match victory for South Africa over host Mexico, the gorillas are betting on a win for Uruguay against Spain.
