When fans turn on their TVs in the coming days to watch the World Cup matches, they’ll repeatedly encounter a relatively unusual scenario. Instead of seeing two teams playing to win, there will be several instances where both teams know even before the match begins: A draw is actually enough. And with that, welcome to the third matchday of the first World Cup featuring 48 teams.

Given the cross-group comparisons among twelve groups of four in the battle for the eight best third-place finishers, the oddities are likely to increase day by day. The lower-ranked groups, which don’t play until Friday and Saturday, will then know pretty much exactly how many points and what goal difference they need to secure one of the coveted eight spots.

But even the opening match between host Canada and Switzerland on Wednesday evening (9:00 p.m.) is likely to be a tight one. Both Canada and Switzerland have four points in Group B and are thus well ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar (one point each). A draw in this head-to-head matchup would ensure that both teams advance to the knockout round.

First place isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

Pierluigi Tami, does the Swiss national team really want to win its group?

Canada would finish first in the group and remain in Vancouver, their home city. Switzerland would finish second and face a comparatively manageable opponent—South Korea, South Africa, or the Czech Republic—which would also offer logistical advantages. On the soccer talk show “Heimspiel bei der Nati,” however, Swiss national team director Pierluigi Tami makes it clear: “We’re not thinking about that. We want first place.” But what else could he say?

Canadian defender Derek Cornelius also says, “We want to win.” He adds, though, “That said, we obviously have to play smart in the final minutes of the game and keep an eye on the score.”

The history of World Cups and European Championships shows that matches in which both teams stand to benefit from a draw often do indeed end in a draw. Two years ago, Romania and Slovakia played to a 1–1 draw at the European Championship in Germany—it was already clear beforehand that a draw would be exactly what both nations needed to advance to the round of 16.

At the 2004 European Championship, Denmark and Sweden had the chance on the final matchday to eliminate Italy with a 2–2 draw in their head-to-head match. The game ended with exactly that score.

“This is a betting scandal,” said Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon about the possible pact between the Scandinavian teams—which, of course, was always vehemently denied in public. The fact is: A non-aggression pact like the one in Gijón in 1982—when the German national team agreed to a 1-0 draw with Austria—has been repeated several times, but has never attracted this much attention. What specific scenarios might arise on the third matchday of the XXL World Cup?

Back then, Italy was still a regular at major tournaments: At Euro 2004, a 2-1 victory over Bulgaria wasn’t enough for Alessandro Del Piero and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to advance.

Keystone

The U.S. is guaranteed to finish first in Group D, while Turkey is guaranteed to finish last. For Australia and Paraguay, Friday morning’s (4:00 a.m.) head-to-head match is therefore only about securing second and third place. In this head-to-head matchup, a draw would be enough for the Socceroos. But Paraguay might also have an interest in that outcome: With a draw and four points, a spot in the Round of 32 should be all but assured. Along with Scotland, both teams are the most likely opponents for the German national team.

A draw would definitely be enough for Australia to advance, and it would most likely be enough for Paraguay as well.

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In Group F, Japan already has four points, while Sweden has three. The two will face off in a head-to-head match on Friday (1:00 a.m.). Here, too, both nations might have an interest in sharing the points: Japan would secure at least second place, and Sweden would earn its fourth point, which will almost certainly be enough. If Sweden loses, things could get tight among the eight best third-place teams following their 1-5 loss to the Netherlands.

A draw wouldn’t dampen the spirits of the Japanese fans.

Keystone

Belgium and Cape Verde also find themselves in a unique situation, currently tied at two points with an even goal difference. For the World Cup debutants from Africa, a draw against Saudi Arabia on Saturday (2:00 a.m.) in Group H could therefore be enough. The same applies to the Belgians, who face New Zealand later (5:00 a.m.) in Group G.

However, there can be no compromise here. Both Saudi Arabia and New Zealand have one point and absolutely need a win. At Euro 2024, Denmark and Slovenia advanced with three draws. Eight years earlier, Portugal did the same—and went on to win the European Championship after four victories in the knockout stage.

Two teams in Group J are in the most comfortable position, as they’ll be the last to play in the group stage on Sunday (4:00 a.m.). Austria and Algeria (both with three points) will know exactly what it takes to advance and which opponent awaits them in second or third place when they face off in Kansas City. World champion Argentina has already secured first place in the group with two wins and five goals from Lionel Messi.

Austria and Algeria could theoretically coordinate their strategy before the match.

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For this tournament, FIFA has not only increased the number of participating nations by 16 but has also tweaked the criteria for advancing. At the tournament in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada—unlike at the most recent tournament in Qatar—head-to-head results take precedence over goal difference in the event of a tie.

This ensures that teams like the U.S., Mexico, or Germany are already confirmed as group winners even before the final matchday. In addition, several nations—including Haiti, Tunisia, Turkey, and Jordan—have already been eliminated. As a result, on the final matchday, there will not only be many teams for whom a draw is entirely sufficient to achieve their goal, but also some teams for whom there is nothing left at stake.

The format—with twelve groups of four and a cross-group comparison of the eight third-place finishers—has also come under criticism. It was introduced solely because the original plan, with 16 groups of three, would have allowed for even more match-fixing on the final matchday. It’s no wonder, then, that the idea persists that the World Cup could soon be expanded to 64 teams.