The XXL World Cup was just the beginning—now comes the Giga Event

The South Americans want it, the Africans want it, and Gianni Infantino at least wants to look into it. That basically means: It will most likely happen. After all, more spots mean better chances for more nations to participate in the World Cup. For Infantino, it means more support from the smaller member associations. And for FIFA as a whole, it means more money.

In the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, the first so-called XXL World Cup—featuring 48 teams for the first time (instead of 32)—has just come to an end, and in four years there are likely to be another 16 teams added. That means 128 matches instead of 104 (like this year) or 64 (like in 2018). Logistically, that will be a major undertaking.

Where will the 2030 World Cup be held?

The answer to this question is well known. For the first time, the World Cup will be held in six countries and on three different continents. Most of the tournament will take place in Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. However, since the World Cup is celebrating its 100th anniversary—100 years after the first tournament in Uruguay—one match each has been assigned to Argentina (Buenos Aires), Paraguay (Asunción), and Uruguay (Montevideo).

What is the planned procedure?

The three matches are scheduled to take place at the start of the World Cup so that the participating teams have time to acclimate after their subsequent trips to Europe and Africa. Their second match is scheduled to take place 11 to 12 days after the opener. The tournament is currently scheduled for June 8 through July 21—which, at 44 days, would already make it the longest World Cup in history.

Until now, expanding the tournament to include 16 additional teams was considered logistically nearly impossible. This would require more games to be played in South America, which would result in even greater travel burdens for more teams than before. Any team drawn into a group in South America that would then have to relocate to Europe or North Africa in the middle of the tournament—a distance of 9,000 to 10,000 kilometers as the crow flies across five time zones—would face a serious competitive disadvantage. However, during the tournament in North America, Infantino stated that this was an issue that “definitely” needed to be considered after the World Cup. The whole world should be allowed to dream of the World Cup, he said, “not just Europe and South America.” That’s as good as a green light for the expansion.

Where should we play?

Current plans call for six stadiums in Morocco, three in Portugal, and eleven in Spain. The largest stadiums are the renovated Camp Nou in Barcelona, which seats more than 103,000 spectators, and the newly built Hassan II Stadium near Casablanca, which, with a capacity of 115,000, would be the largest soccer stadium in the world. With the World Cup expanding to 64 teams, there will be very few countries left capable of hosting such a massive tournament on their own.

How does the qualification process work?

Even before it is clear how many spots will be available per continent in the future, it is certain that Europe will reform the qualifying process for the 2030 World Cup and align it with the league system used in European cup competitions. Until now, teams have played against each other in home-and-away matches in groups of four or five. The group winners qualified directly, while the runners-up still had a chance to qualify through the playoffs.

Now, the top 36 teams from the Nations League will be divided into three groups of twelve teams each. In each group, every team will play six matches against six different opponents, and these results will be used to create a standings table for each group. The top teams will qualify directly, while the remaining spots will be decided through playoffs. UEFA has yet to finalize the exact breakdown. The teams ranked below the top 36 will also compete in a league system. The six host nations are automatically qualified.

What happens after the 2030 World Cup?

The tournament, held across three continents, has significant implications for soccer policy: Due to the rotation principle, no hosts from North and Central America, Europe, Africa, or South America were able to bid for the subsequent 2034 World Cup. This cleared the way for Asia’s representative, Saudi Arabia, with whose soccer association FIFA President Infantino maintains close ties.

According to the rotation principle, only Oceania and CONCACAF (North and Central America) would be eligible in 2038. This would pave the way for a return to the U.S. after just twelve years. U.S. President Donald Trump had already announced before the final that he wanted to bring the tournament back to the U.S. “immediately.” He will no longer be president by 2038, and Gianni Infantino will (likely) no longer be FIFA’s head either. But nowhere else can the world governing body make as much money as in America. This year’s revenue is expected to reach 15 billion dollars. There is no better argument for FIFA to return to the U.S. as soon as possible.