Pogacar—and then what? A Look at the Tour's Favorites

Dominator Tadej Pogacar had a warning for the competition ahead of the Tour de France’s first rest day. The Slovenian was asked whether he would now take a more defensive approach for the rest of the race given his large lead. “The main goal is to keep the yellow jersey, right? But sometimes offense is the best defense,” said the 27-year-old.

None of Pogacar’s rivals will seriously believe that he’ll just trail behind in the upcoming mountain stages in the Massif Central, the Vosges, and the Alps. But what are the favorites’ chances for the rest of the Tour, which ends in Paris on July 26?

Tadej Pogacar (First place):

The Slovenian has dominated the race at will so far. After a narrow defeat in the team time trial, he claimed two stage victories himself and let one go to his key domestique, Isaac del Toro. With his impressive solo breakaway up the Tourmalet in the Pyrenees, he reclaimed the Yellow Jersey and demoralized his rivals. His lead is already substantial. Only a major collapse, a crash, or an illness could likely prevent the world champion from claiming his fifth Tour victory.

Jonas Vingegaard (second place, 2:42 minutes behind):

As in previous years, the Dane is the second-strongest rider in the field, but he clearly can’t pose a serious threat to Pogacar either. Hopes to the contrary after the team time trial were short-lived. On the Tourmalet stage, he lost a lot of time to the Slovenian and was himself nearly caught by the rest of the general classification contenders. At least the long, consistently steep climbs in the Alps suit the 29-year-old. Vingegaard has shown—not only with his Tour victories in 2022 and 2023—that he can still step up his game in the third week of a stage race.

Just behind Vingegaard, five riders are within a mere 33 seconds of him. In order, they are Isaac del Toro, Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso, Paul Seixas, and Florian Lipowitz. They are all aiming for the podium.

Remco Evenepoel (fourth, 3:30 minutes behind):

The outgoing Belgian caused a stir when he verbally confronted his teammate Florian Lipowitz after last Thursday’s Pyrenees stage. Lipowitz had refused to help him, the Belgian complained. The team tried to smooth things over, but the dynamic between the co-captains remains tense. The Olympic champion is hoping for a stage win in the time trial on July 21. Whether he can keep up with the very best on the difficult high-mountain stages remains highly questionable.

Paul Seixas (6th place, 3:55 minutes behind):

The French prodigy has had a rather unremarkable first Tour so far, but he’s in an excellent position. The 19-year-old, who caused a sensation with his performances this spring, hasn’t launched any major attacks yet. It will be interesting to see how the Grande Nation’s great hope can cope with the rigors of his first three-week stage race.

Florian Lipowitz (7th place, 4:00 minutes behind):

The German seemed somewhat surprised by his teammate Evenepoel’s emotional outburst, but subsequently came across as relaxed and conciliatory. On Sunday, he fetched a water bottle for the Belgian from the support car. “We can look ahead now. There are tougher stages coming up, and I think the field will start to thin out,” said the 25-year-old, who finished third last year and once again has a good chance of making the podium. The question of who will be the team captain at Red Bull may then resolve itself. On the Tourmalet, at least, Lipowitz managed to shake off Evenepoel for a while.