Jannik Sinner has an unexpected opportunity to knock Carlos Alcaraz off the top spot in the world rankings at the ATP Finals at home in Turin. There is a lot to be said for the Italian.
It can happen that quickly. Just two weeks ago, Jannik Sinner was harshly criticized by former greats and the Italian media because he was happy to forgo the Davis Cup final in Bologna the week after next. But the fans don't seem to hold this against him.
When Sinner steps onto the court at the PalaOlimpico in Turin for the first time on Wednesday, the stands are packed. The South Tyrolean was greeted with thunderous applause as he and his trusted coaches Simone Vagnozzi and Darren Cahill set off for training. The dust has long since settled.
The pride of being Italian
After Sinner declared on Sky TV that he was "proud to be Italian", even the Italian Minister of Sport and Youth rushed to his aid this week. Andrea Abodi told the Ansa news agency: "If you know Sinner's origins and the sensitivities and cultural differences that exist, such a declaration is even more valuable to me."
Sinner's starting position at the ATP Finals has also changed. Even before the start of the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris at the beginning of last week, the 24-year-old former skier from the tourist resort of Sexten had declared that conquering the number 1 ranking at the end of the year was no longer a goal because it was hopeless. Then Carlos Alcaraz lost right at the start in Paris, Sinner won the tournament and has actually been number 1 again since Monday.
He will lose it again at the start of the ATP Finals on Sunday because the points from his victory last year will be removed from the ranking before the current tournament. Nevertheless, regaining the throne is no longer so unrealistic.
Assistance needed
However, Sinner will need some help. So far this year, he has won 1050 points less than Alcaraz. He must defend his title if he wants to have a chance. If he does so unbeaten, he will receive 1500 points, if he loses one of his preliminary round matches, he will receive 1300 points. His Spanish rival therefore needs 500 points to be sure of winning. He can achieve this if he wins all three of his preliminary round matches in the Jimmy Connors group against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur (200 points each). Or even if he only wins two of them and then the semi-final (400 points). However, Djokovic, who is still in action in Athens this week, has not yet given a firm commitment that he will compete in Turin at all.
Sinner would be the first player since Novak Djokovic (2021 and 2022) to be ranked No. 1 at the end of the year two years in a row - despite missing three months from February to April due to a doping ban. Alcaraz and he also shared the victories at the four Grand Slams between them and went head-to-head for almost the entire year.
No arithmetic
However, Sinner does not want to let the arithmetic games turn his head. "I'm taking it day by day," he explained after his victory in the final in Paris. "I'm concentrating on playing to the best of my ability. I'll do the same in Turin."
The form is definitely in Sinner's favor, who only lost 33 games on his way to victory in Turin last year, the fewest of any player in the history of the year-end tournament for the top eight. Alcaraz has qualified for the ATP Finals for the fourth time, but always looks exhausted in the fall after an exhausting season. In 2022, he decided not to take part, in 2023 he clearly failed to beat Djokovic in the semi-finals and a year ago he was eliminated in the preliminary round. He would never have scored the points he now needs to retain the number 1 ranking.