Germany Forecast: AfD ahead in Thuringia election - CDU in Saxony

According to forecasts, the far-right AfD has become the strongest party in a German federal state for the first time. According to calculations by ARD and ZDF, it is far ahead of the second-placed Christian Democrats in the state elections in Thuringia. The latter are just ahead in neighboring Saxony.

The newly founded left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved a double-digit result from a standing start. Disaster is looming for the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens).

According to forecasts, the AfD achieved between 30.5 and 33.5 percent in Thuringia (2019: 23.4 percent), its best result ever in a state election. The Christian Democrats achieved 24.5% (2019: 21.8%), while the ruling Left Party plummeted to between 11.5% and 12.5% (2019: 31.0%). The newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a split-off from the Left Party, recorded 14.5 to 16% from a standing start.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats achieved a meagre 6.5 to 7.0 percent (2019: 8.2 percent), while the Greens were kicked out of parliament with 4 percent (2019: 5.2 percent). The FDP clearly failed to reach the five percent hurdle with 1.0 to 1.3 percent (2019: 5.0 percent).

According to forecasts, the AfD received 30 to 31.5% in Saxony (2019: 27.5%), putting it behind Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer's Christian Democrats with 31.5 to 32% (2019: 32.1%). The BSW, which was competing for the first time, also came third here with 11.5 to 12.0 percent. The Left Party slumped to 4.0 to 4.5 percent (2019: 10.4 percent). The SPD, which is traditionally weak in Saxony, landed at 8.5 percent (2019: 7.7 percent), while the Greens came in at 5 to 5.5 percent (2019: 8.6 percent). With around 1 percent (2019: 4.5 percent), the FDP once again failed to make it into the state parliament.