Greenland déjà vu How Trump is driving Iceland, the "52nd state", into the arms of the EU

Will Iceland possibly join the EU as early as fall 2027? Donald Trump's desire for Greenland scares Reykjavik because the signs are the same for both islands. The Nato member could seek protection under Brussels' umbrella because Washington is putting more and more pressure on it.

The issue of Greenland seems to have been put to rest for the time being after Donald Trump apparently backed away from his plans to take over the island at the WEF in Davos.

But the 79-year-old has not let go of the matter: on Saturday, February 21, the US President announced on his Truth Social platform that he would be sending a hospital ship to Greenland. It is to take care of "the many people who are sick and who are not being treated there".

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reacted coolly: "I am happy to live in a country where everyone has free and equal access to healthcare. Where insurance companies and wealth do not decide whether you are treated appropriately," she wrote on Facebook yesterday, Sunday.

At the same time, the US Secretary of the Interior is taking a stand: "If you look at the geography, Greenland is kind of like the end cap across from Alaska, and if you want to protect North America and the United States from missiles and drones coming over the North Pole, Greenland is an important part of the defense of the United States of America," Doug Burgum is quoted as saying on Sunday.

The same omens as Greenland

From this point of view, however, Greenland is probably not enough: anyone looking at the world map from the Russian perspective will recognize that Iceland is just as important to the defence of the USA as Greenland. Without control of Iceland, there would be a gap through which Russian submarines could sail into the Atlantic and towards North America.

This strategic dilemma, known as the "GIUK gap", has long been a headache for Western militaries. As early as the Second World War, it kept the admirals of the Royal Navy busy: during the Cold War, NATO deployed a Sound Surveillance System (SISUS) to detect Soviet submarines secretly sailing westwards through these waters.

GIUK is a synonym that stands for the countries involved: Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain aka UK. "The GIUK gap plays a crucial role in limiting Russian activities on a global scale," emphasizes the Arctic Institute.

Why Iceland is becoming more important

The importance of the area is increasing, it continues: "Both the Arctic NATO countries and Russia are actively re-establishing the Cold War military presence in the Arctic by expanding their old facilities, with a focus on missile deployment and storage."

Another point is the melting of the Arctic ice, which will open up new trade routes in the Arctic Ocean in the future: These will not only pass Greenland, but also - apart from the Northwest Passage - Iceland.

In principle, the same arguments that Donald Trump cites for his Greenland ambitions should speak in favor of Iceland: At best, the island is negligible for the Golden Dome missile shield.

Iceland as the "52nd state" of the USA

And Iceland could indeed be Washington's next target. This is also suggested by a scandal in mid-January: "Politico" reported that the designated US ambassador in Reykjavik "joked" that the island would become the "52nd state" - and that he would be the new governor. There is corresponding outrage on the ground.

A radio presenter named Jon Axel Olafsson launches a petition against the US diplomat-to-be: "These words from Billy Long, who Donald Trump has appointed as ambassador to Iceland, may have been uttered half-heartedly, but they are an insult to Iceland and the Icelanders who have had to fight for their freedom and have always been a friend of the United States."

Iceland's government is being asked to reject Long as ambassador. The petition has so far attracted 5,450 signatures. The American, however, emphasizes that he was just joking and apologizes for it. What doesn't make things any better is his boss's appearance at the WEF in Davos just a few days later.

Trump's Iceland slip of the tongue in Davos

The reason: in Switzerland, Donald Trump repeatedly confuses the two islands in northern Europe. "Until a few days ago, when I told them about Iceland, [the Europeans] loved me," said the 79-year-old in Davos. And: "I don't know if [the Europeans] would be there for us. They are not there for us in Iceland, I can tell you that."

Diplomat Long's "joke" or President Trump's mix-up: alarm bells are ringing in Reykjavík. The island is only 300 kilometers away from Greenland, which Trump can't get out of his head - except perhaps during his speeches in Davos. Iceland is also theoretically defenceless: there is no local military.

The island is actually a member of NATO. It has also had a mutual assistance pact with the USA since 1951. But the current situation is causing a rethink in Reykjavík: because of Trump's great power posturing and also in view of its unpredictable tariffs, Iceland is being driven into the arms of the EU.

Vote as early as August?

The island last flirted with EU membership after the financial crisis in 2009, but the corresponding application was withdrawn after a change of government in 2015. Fears about fishing, sovereignty and the domestic currency were the main reasons for this.

On the other hand, Iceland is already closely intertwined with Brussels - for example through the common economic zone and the Schengen Agreement. Joining the EU would clearly improve Reykjavik's cards in terms of trade and defense: According to a survey conducted in April 2025, 44.3 percent of respondents were in favor - and only 35.6 percent were against.

And Iceland's government is reacting: A vote on whether to reopen accession negotiations with Brussels was not actually due to take place before 2027. But now the population could be called to the polls as early as August, Politico has learned from two sources who wish to remain anonymous.

"I think the fact that Iceland was mentioned four times in a Trump speech [in Davos] certainly raised eyebrows," one EU official commented on the change of heart. "In the end, it's all about the fish, that's always been the issue." Should Iceland vote in favor of accession, it could happen quickly: "On paper, it wouldn't be too difficult; it could even take as little as a year," says the EU source.