Iran What Israel wants to achieve in Lebanon - and what is threatening
After heavy bombardments by Israeli warplanes that left hundreds dead and injured, horrific memories are coming back to life in Lebanon. Israel's military has stepped up the pressure on the Shia militia Hezbollah and has now launched heavy attacks in the south and east of the neighboring country.
24.09.2024, 15:10
SDA
The most important questions:
Why is Israel attacking Hezbollah so heavily right now?
Hezbollah has been firing at Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war almost a year ago - according to its own account, out of solidarity with the allied Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Around 60,000 inhabitants of Israel's north have left their homes as a result.
Israel now wants Hezbollah to withdraw from the border with Lebanon and allow its citizens to return to their homes. The right-wing religious government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under massive internal pressure due to the situation in the north. Before the new attacks began, it was accused of inaction towards Hezbollah and of having "given up" on northern Israel.
Is Israel's strategy working?
So far, there are no signs that Hezbollah is bowing to the increased pressure from the Israeli military. The "New York Times" reports, citing Israeli government representatives, that Israel had hoped to unsettle the militia with the massive attacks and force it to retreat. So far, however, the opposite seems to have happened. "Both sides are caught in a spiral of escalation," writes expert Dana Stroul in the magazine "Foreign Affairs".
How strong are the two parties to the conflict in comparison?
With an estimated 170,000 soldiers and 460,000 reservists, Israel's military is stronger than Hezbollah, which is estimated to have around 50,000 fighters. Israel's fighter planes, tanks and other modern weapons systems would be clearly superior to the Shiite militia in conventional combat. However, Hezbollah has a massive arsenal of missiles and relies on forms of irregular warfare.
In the event of an Israeli ground offensive in the mountainous regions of southern Lebanon, it would probably inflict heavy damage on the soldiers through ambushes, for example. Like Hamas in Gaza, it is also said to have an extensive network of tunnels at its disposal and can obtain supplies of weapons from Iran via Syria and Iraq. However, after numerous attacks on its top and middle management and its communication systems, the militia has been significantly weakened.
How are the people in Lebanon faring?
Even though neither Israel nor Hezbollah appear to be interested in a large-scale, all-out war: For many people in Lebanon, it feels like war, at least since the Israeli attacks with more than 500 dead and 1,800 injured. Air strikes on hundreds of buildings in the south and east, heavy explosions and rubble and overcrowded hospitals bring back memories of the great war of 2006. Thousands of families have fled the attacks to other cities, some of them staying in schools that have been turned into emergency shelters or with relatives and friends. A man named Mustafa from Sidkine in the south said: "I don't know who is responsible, but we citizens are paying a deadly price."
How did the last war in 2006 end?
The second Lebanon war lasted one month and ended with a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations. At that time, a kind of buffer zone was established in southern Lebanon. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 banned the presence of Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani River, in the border area with Israel. Instead, the Lebanese military was to be stationed in southern Lebanon. The Israeli troops in turn had to withdraw behind the border known as the Blue Line. However, Hezbollah fighters gradually returned to the forbidden area.
Why is UN Resolution 1701 not being complied with?
The resolution does not provide for any punitive measures in the event of violations. The army in Lebanon is not enforcing it, nor is the UN observer mission Unifil, which is supposed to monitor compliance with the 2006 ceasefire. This force, with around 13,000 UN soldiers involved, does not have a robust mandate and has repeatedly been accused of impotence. It was also unable to prevent the new escalation. Lebanon's weak government, which has been without a president for almost two years, has little power over Hezbollah and is more or less powerless in the event of its violations of the resolution. The south is an important power base for Hezbollah.
What scenarios are there now?
Israel's army is likely to continue or even expand its air strikes. Ground troops would probably only enter the country on a limited basis, if at all. Hezbollah has suffered its heaviest losses for a long time since July and now has to weigh up its options. It can continue its attacks to maintain deterrence against Israel, but risk further heavy and embarrassing losses. Or it can bow to the pressure, accept a ceasefire and withdraw from the border. This would be a bitter blow, but the Shiite militia could reorganize itself and wage the fight against Israel from underground, for example, in order to ensure its own survival.
How are Iran and the USA behaving?
Hezbollah has been Iran's most important ally in the Middle East for years. It is unlikely that Tehran will rush to its aid in the event of a major war. Iran's new government under President Massud Peseshkian is struggling with a severe economic crisis and is trying to forge a rapprochement with the West. The military and political leadership have recently made threats. Meanwhile, the USA, Israel's most important ally, is busy with its own election campaign and is therefore not making full use of its opportunities to exert pressure on Israel's head of government Netanyahu.
