Vote on September 22 SRG survey shows a relative yes for BVG reform - other survey predicts no

In a poll conducted by Tamedia and "20 Minuten" on Wednesday, 59% of respondents said they wanted to reject the BVG reform. An SRG poll on Friday, on the other hand, showed a relative yes vote for the proposal.

Keystone-SDA

16.08.2024, 06:01

16.08.2024, 09:09

SDA

If the BVG reform had already been put to the vote on August 4, the bill would only have received a relative majority. This is the result of an initial survey commissioned by SRG for the vote on September 22.

According to the survey published on Friday by the JRC Bern research institute, 49% of respondents would have definitely or somewhat approved of the BVG reform at the beginning of August. 39 percent would have definitely or rather put a "no" in the ballot box. 12 percent said they were still undecided.

Overall, the formation of opinion is not very advanced, the authors of the study wrote. Shifts can still be expected in the course of the referendum campaign. They did not dare to make a prediction: as things stand today, the outcome of the vote must be left open.

Support for the BVG reform is highest among GLP, FDP and centrist supporters - with yes shares of 70, 68 and 63 percent respectively.

Higher rejection in French-speaking Switzerland

Among SP supporters, on the other hand, the "no" vote predominates - albeit relatively narrowly at 51%. Among supporters of the Greens, 42% were inclined to say yes, 38% to say no. A similar picture emerged among supporters of the SVP: 46% wanted to say yes, 42% were against. Among those not affiliated with a party, 43% were in favor and 39% against.

At the political poles, the slogans of the respective parties were only partially effective, according to the study. The SP and Greens reject the BVG reform, while the SVP supports the proposal.

According to the survey, rejection of the BVG reform is higher than average in French-speaking Switzerland and among people who distrust the government. The higher a person's level of education and income, the more likely they are to vote yes.

Very different results

The SRG survey on the BVG reform shows a significantly better starting position for the pro camp than the first poll published on Wednesday by Tamedia and "20 Minuten". In the survey conducted by the Leewas Institute, 59% of respondents said they wanted to reject the bill, while only 33% said they agreed.

On the other hand, the two surveys are very close when it comes to the biodiversity initiative: in the SRG survey, 51% of respondents said they wanted to accept the referendum. 42 percent said they wanted to vote no. 6 percent were still undecided.

In the survey published two days earlier by Tamedia and "20 Minuten", the corresponding percentages were almost exactly the same, with 51% in favor, 42% against and 7% undecided.

Skepticism in the countryside

According to the SRG survey, there is a left-right conflict with regard to the biodiversity initiative: among Green and SP supporters, approval clearly outweighs disapproval with 95% and 85% respectively. Among the GLP's base, 67% still support the biodiversity initiative. In the center, the "no" vote dominates with 56%, while the FDP and SVP are even more clearly opposed with "no" votes of 71% and 72% respectively.

There were also clear differences between urban and rural areas and between the sexes, according to the authors of the study. While the "no" camp is ahead in rural areas with 54%, the initiative has majorities in both small and medium-sized as well as large conurbations. However, at 53% and 56% respectively, these are also not very clear.

While 52% of men reject the initiative and only 44 are in favor of it, 58% of women are in favor and 35% are against.

Looking at the different language regions, approval is clearly higher in French-speaking Switzerland (57%) than in German-speaking Switzerland (49%).

Decisive course of the debate

The debate on the biodiversity initiative has only just begun and its course will ultimately decide the outcome of the vote, the authors of the study wrote. If the Yes side succeeds in presenting biodiversity as an underestimated problem, it could retain its narrow majority.

However, they pointed out that it is normal for initiatives to lose support in the course of the referendum campaign. This is because concrete effects gain weight in the discussion: "The initiative has probably already lost part of its lead in the countryside and in German-speaking Switzerland this summer."

For the SRG survey, JRC Bern interviewed 12,332 voters by telephone and online between July 29 and August 12, 2024. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.