Politics War between Israel and Hezbollah would have devastating consequences
For more than eight months, Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah have been constantly firing at each other. The intensity of the fighting has recently increased significantly. There is great concern that Israel and Hezbollah will engage in an even more intense armed conflict. It is feared that an open war could escalate into a regional conflict in which the USA, Israel's most important ally, would also be drawn into.
20.06.2024, 16:15
SDA
What does an open war between Israel and Hezbollah mean?
Experts believe that Hezbollah is significantly stronger than it was during the last major war with Israel in 2006. The militia has years of fighting experience in the Syrian war. With Iranian support, it fought alongside the troops of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Similar to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has built an underground tunnel system in Lebanon from which the militiamen could conduct their battles. Hezbollah has an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets. In the event of war, it could fire thousands of rockets at Israeli cities every day and take out important infrastructure. A hail of missiles could overwhelm Israel's missile defense.
Hezbollah can hit almost any target in Israel
"In a relentlessly fought war, there will be more destruction on the home front and deeper inside Israel," Israeli Brigadier General Schlomo Bron told the "New York Times". Hezbollah could hit more or less any target in Israel, including civilian facilities, "just as we would attack southern Beirut," he said, referring to neighborhoods in the south of the Lebanese capital that are known as Hezbollah strongholds.
Such a war would have fatal consequences for Lebanon, which is already economically and politically shaken. Last year, Israeli Defense Minister Joav Galant warned that the neighboring country would be "taken back to the Stone Age" in the event of a war.
Riad Kahwaji, Director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), assesses the balance of power in Israel's favor. "No matter how much damage Hezbollah does in Israel, the Israelis will do ten to a hundred times as much," he says. Hezbollah is not pushing for war, but above all wants to deter Israel. So far, it has kept its attacks within limits.
Nasrallah: Hezbollah will strike back "without restrictions"
Listening to the Secretary General of Hezbollah during his hour-long speeches, one could get the impression that the conflict has long since been decided - in favor of his militia. Hassan Nasrallah never tires of emphasizing Hezbollah's success and the "exhaustion of the enemy". "If they (the Israelis) force a war on Lebanon, the resistance will strike back without restrictions, rules or borders," he warned in his latest speech on Wednesday evening.
Nasrallah is celebrating his "Lebanon Front" for its success, especially because, according to him, it has led to economic and tourist losses in Israel. In doing so, he ignores the situation in Lebanon itself. After all, the Mediterranean state, which is riven by crises and corruption, is hardly in a position to wage war. Lebanon is already in the worst economic crisis in its history. Moreover, there is neither a president nor a government that is fully capable of acting. Kahwaji says that a major war would further destabilize the country.
What does Israel want to achieve in Lebanon?
Israel wants the Hezbollah militiamen threatening its border area to withdraw to the area north of the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the border. After the 2006 war, a UN resolution stipulated that Hezbollah fighters were not allowed to remain south of this line. However, they have gradually returned to the border area over the years, while UN peacekeepers have looked on impotently.
Pressure on the right-wing conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to allow tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes is growing noticeably. Right-wing Israelis are even calling for the Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, which was evacuated in 2000, to be re-established for their protection.
US mediation efforts have so far come to nothing
US envoy Amos Hochstein has been trying to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict during talks in Israel and Lebanon this week - so far in vain. Nasrallah said that Hezbollah would not stop its attacks on Israel without a ceasefire in the Gaza war. However, the Islamist Hamas is refusing to release the hostages it still holds without an Israeli commitment to a complete end to the war. Israel expects to end the operation in Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip within a few weeks. By then at the latest, it will probably be decided whether there will be a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah or a ceasefire.
According to the newspaper "Haaretz", Hochstein warned during his talks with the Israeli leadership that a war with Hezbollah could result in a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel.
Israel's former national security advisor, Ejal Hulata, also sees the danger of Iran's nuclear armament in the slipstream of the Gaza war. Referring to the Iranian attack on Israel in April, he said: "It would make a dramatic difference if Iran had nuclear capabilities, even if it did not use them. Just the ability to threaten with it." Many experts see the Gaza war as just one front in Israel's larger confrontation with the Iran-led "resistance axis", which also includes militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
The role of Hezbollah's powerful ally Iran
Hezbollah in Lebanon is considered Iran's most important ally. A regional war could force Tehran's leadership to intensify its political and military support. Influence in countries such as Lebanon or Syria is "strategically existential" for the Islamic Republic, according to a recent article by the think tank "European Council on Foreign Relations" (ECFR). The war in Gaza has further reinforced this strategic mindset in Iran. Nevertheless, direct military intervention by Iran in the conflict is considered unlikely. In view of the economic crisis, the Iranian government is also under pressure domestically. A large part of the population accuses the leadership of neglecting urgently needed investments in its own country and instead channeling money into regional militias.
Iran is pursuing the long-term strategy of "ending Israel's existence as a Zionist state", said Amos Jadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, recently. "He is preparing us for a long war of attrition to make life miserable for the people here", he said, "so that the people no longer want to live here".
